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SCIENCE

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NATIONAL SCIENCE BOARD

1974

NATIONAL SCIENCE BOARD

(as of May 10, 1974)

DR. H. E. CARTER (Chairman, National Science Board), Coordinator of

Interdisciplinary Programs, University of Arizona
DR. ROGER W. HEYNS (Vice Chairman, National Science Board), President, American

Council on Education, Washington, D.C.
DR. R. H. BING," Professor of Mathematics, The University of Texas at Austin
DR. HARVEY BROOKS, i Gordon McKay Professor of Applied Physics and Dean of

Engineering and Applied Physics, Harvard University
DR. W. GLENN CAMPBELL, Director, Hoover Institution on War, Revolution, and

Peace, Stanford University
DR. ROBERT A. CHARPIE, President, Cabot Corporation, Boston, Massachusetts
DR. LLOYD M. COOKE, Director of Urban Affairs and University Relations, Union

Carbide Corporation, New York, New York
DR. ROBERT H. DICKE, Cyrus Fogg Brackett Professor of Physics, Department of

Physics, Princeton University
DR. WILLIAM A. FOWLER,' Institute Professor of Physics, California Institute of

Technology
DR. DAVID M. GATES, Professor of Botany and Director, Biological Station,

Department of Botany, University of Michigan
DR. NORMAN HACKERMAN,^ President, Rice University
DR. T. MARSHALL HAHN, Jr., President, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State

University
DR. PHILIP HANDLER,' President, National Academy of Sciences, Washington, D.C.
DR. ANNA J. HARRISON, Professor of Chemistry, Mount Holyoke College
DR. HUBERT HEFFNER, Chairman, Department of Applied Physics, Stanford

University
DR. JAMES G. MARCH,' David Jacks Professor of Higher Education, Political Science,

and Sociology, School of Education, Stanford University
MR. WILLIAM H. MECKLING, Dean, The Graduate School of Management, The

University of Rochester
DR. GROVER E. MURRAY,^ President, Texas Tech University and Texas Tech

University School of Medicine
DR. WILLIAM A. NIERENBERG, Director, Scripps Institution of Oceanography,

University of California at San Diego
DR. RUSSELL D. O'NEAL, Executive Vice President, KMS Fusion, Inc., Ann Arbor,

Michigan
DR. FRANK PRESS, Chairman, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences,

Massachusetts Institute of Technology
DR. JOSEPH M. REYNOLDS, Boyd Professor of Physics and Vice President for

Instruction and Research, Louisiana State University
DR. FREDERICK E. SMITH,' Professor of Advanced Environmental Studies in

Resources and Ecology, Graduate School of Design, Harvard University
DR. H. GUYFORD STEVER, Director, National Science Foundation
DR. F. P. THIEME, President, University of Colorado

MISS VERNICE ANDERSON, Executive Secretary, National Science Board

' Term expired May 10, 1974.
^ Reappointed in 1974.

SCIENCE

AND THE

CHALLENGES

AHEAD

REPORT OF THE NATIONAL SCIENCE BOARD

^ NATIONAL SCIENCE BOARD

J NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION

u- ' 1974

For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office

Washington, D.C. 20402 - Price SB cents

Stock Number 0.38-000-00205

LETTER OF TRANSMITTAL

December 1, 1974
My Dear Mr. President:

I have the honor of transmitting to you, and through you to the
Congress, the Sixth Annual Report of the National Science Board.
The report is submitted in accordance with Section 4(g) of the
National Science Foundation Act as amended by Public Law 90-407.

In this report. Science and the Challenges Ahead, the Board examines
some of the major problems facing the Nation and the world: popula-
tion growth, health care, food supply, energy demand, mineral
resources, climate changes, and environmental alteration. The report
identifies aspects of these problems which could be alleviated by
science and technology and assesses the adequacy of present scien-
tific knowledge for providing such help.

The primary contributions which science and technology can
make in meeting these challenges are better understanding of the
problems and the development of alternate strategies and
technologies for attacking them. Present knowledge is inadequate for
these purposes. Major advances in virtually all the sciences are re-
quired to expand and deepen the understanding of these problems
and their interconnections before strategies and technologies of
assured effectiveness can be developed.

Toward these ends, the Board recommends tl\at the Nation's
research efforts be expanded substantially in the years ahead. A part
of the increased efforts should be directed to basic and applied
research on problems now confronting the Nation, such as those dis-
cussed in this report. Another part needs to be reserved for "un-
targeted" basic research which is not tied specifically to present
problems, but is aimed instead at advancing general scientific
knowledge. This research may contribute to alleviating present
problems, but its principal benefit lies in providing knowledge needed
for meeting problems of the future.

In calling for greater research expenditures — by both the Federal
Government and the private sector — the Board is mindful of the pres-
ent state of the economy and of measures taken and contemplated
for strengthening it. Many of the problems discussed in this report,
in fact, have impaired the economy and are likely to continue to
aggravate it until the problems are alleviated or solved.

m

The difficult decisions that must be made in these circumstances
involve perplexing choices concerning priorities and the allocation of
our limited national resources. What should the Nation's priorities be,
and how should our resources be divided among them? What propor-
tion of the Nation's resources should be devoted to research? And of
these resources, what is the proper mix of attention to problems of to-
day versus those of tomorrow, and to the immediate causes of our
problems versus the more fundamental ones?

These decisions will influence and shape the future of our Na-
tion. They can be made only by the President and the Congress.

This report was prepared by the National Science Board in the
hope that it would serve as a resource to the Executive Branch and
the Congress for enhancing the contribution of science and
technology in improving the quality of life in this country and in the
world.

Respectfully yours,

The Honorable H. E. Carter

The President of the United States

IV

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

The preparation of the report. Science and the Challenges Ahead,
spanned a period in which the membership of the National Science
Board changed. Those Members whose terms expired in May 1974
are: Dr. R. H. Bing, Dr. Harvey Brooks, Dr. William A. Fowler,
Dr. Philip Handler, Dr. James G. March, and Dr. Frederick E. Smith.

Although these Members participated in the formulation of ini-
tial drafts, the final report is the responsibility of the continuing
Members. Dr. H. E. Carter was Chairman of the Board during much of
the period in which the report Vv^as prepared and is submitting it on
behalf of the present Chairman, Dr. Norman Hackerman.

Many Members of the Board contributed individual sections of
this report, and the entire Board spent considerable time in its plan-
ning and review. Dr. Robert E. Bickner (Public Policy Research
Organization, University of California at Irvine) assisted the Board in
the early development of the report. The Board is deeply appreciative
of the assistance of Dr. Robert W. Brainard of the National Science
Foundation, who served as Staff Director throughout the later stages
of the preparation of the report.

The help and cooperation of many other persons in the National
Science Foundation are also gratefully acknowledged. The National
Science Board Office provided outstanding administrative and
secretarial assistance throughout the entire period of the preparation
of the report.

CONTENTS

INTRODUCTION 1

I. CHALLENGES AND THE RESPONSE OF SCIENCE 3

Challenge of the Unknown 3

Challenges from Nature 5

Challenges of Society 7

Challenges of Man's Increasing Power 9

IL CHALLENGE OF MAN'S POWER 11

Population and Health 11

Primary Productivity 14

Energy 19

Minerals 21

Weather and Climate 23

Environment 26

The Challenges in Perspective 28

m. ADEQUACY OF SCIENCE TO MEET THE CHALLENGES: TWO

ILLUSTRATIVE TESTS 31

Cancer 32

The Growing Science Base 32

The National Cancer Program Plan 33

Adequacy of the Current State of Basic Research 34

Scientific Manpower Requirements 38

Prospects for the Cancer Program 39

Energy 40

The National Energy Program 41

Adequacy of the Current State of Basic Research 43

Scientific Manpower Requirements 46

IV. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS 49

Challenges of Today and Tomorrow 49

Role of Science and Technology 50

Adequacy of Present Knowledge 50

The Nation's Research Effort 51

V. RECOMMENDATIONS 55

Application of the Nation's Research Capability to Civilian

Problems 55

Role of the Federal Government 55

Role of Private Industry 56

Role of the University 56

vu

INTRODUCTION

Man's success in meeting challenges of the past is due largely to
his insight and the ability to share it with present and future
generations. Will man's knowledge of himself and of the physical and
social environment be adequate to the tests that lie ahead?

Some of the challenges are as old as the human species itself. One
of these is the challenge of the unknown, which is reflected in man's
unremitting curiosity about himself and the world. Another is
represented by threats from nature, in the form of disease, famine,
and the elements. And a third class consists of social problems, ranging
from international conflict to societal strife and interpersonal discord.
These three classes of challenges, which overlap and influence each
other, have changed in detail over time but still remain.

A fourth type of challenge has emerged recently and is growing
rapidly. This is the challenge posed by man's increasing power to
create his future. He has acquired the knowledge and means to alter
the course of natural events and to shape the conditions of human life.
Man's own actions, more than nature, now determine the size of the
human population, its distribution around the globe, and the state of
its health. His patterns of consumption produce a growing demand for
food and fiber, for energy and materials — a demand that can neither be
reduced nor met without altering the economic, social, and
technological character of life in the future. Man is developing the
capability to control weather and modify climate intentionally, while
his agricultural and industrial activities produce inadvertent changes.
To a growing extent and in a variety of ways, man has the power to
cause basic transformations of the atmosphere, the oceans, and the
biosphere — some of which may be irreversible alterations that
endanger the habitability of the planet.

Thus, man increasingly invents his own destiny — intentionally or
unwittingly. The constructive use of such power requires all our will
and wisdom.

The last category of challenges is the focus of this report. Principal
attention is directed here because of the growing practical significance
of this challenge and the corresponding need for urgent and sustained
attention. Several facets of this broad challenge now loom as major
problems: population, world food supply, energy, materials, climate,
and the environment. The nearly simultaneous emergence of these
problems suggests the close connections that exist among them. The
fact that the problems are global in scope indicates their pervasive and

568-953 O - 75 - 2

fundamental character as well as the difficulty in confronting them
effectively. In whatever form the challenge is met — actively or
passively, internationally or nationally, knowledgeably or ignorantly,
successfully or unsuccessfully — the choices made will shape much of
man's future.

Although emphasis is placed on the challenge of man's increasing
power, no implication is intended that the other challenges can be
ignored; they are, indeed, so intertwined with the more recent ones
that all must be met.

The first chapter of the report reviews briefly the more familiar
challenges and discusses general aspects of the newer ones.

The second chapter examines several problems encompassed in
the broader challenge of man's increasing power. The nature and
scope of each problem is discussed, and the past and potential role of
science and technology in alleviating the problem is noted.

The third chapter explores the adequacy of science and
technology for helping to respond to such problems. For this purpose
two recently initiated U.S. programs — one in the area of cancer and
the other in energy — are taken as illustrative tests of the present
capabilities of science and technology.

The fourth chapter presents conclusions drawn from these
assessments and relates them to recent trends in the level and
direction of the Nation's research effort.

The final chapter recommends actions and policies aimed at
strengthening the scientific and technological response to present and
future challenges.

I

CHALLENGES AND THE RESPONSE

OF SCIENCE

This chapter discusses briefly the nature of the general challenges
cited earlier — challenges of the unknown, of nature, of society, and of
man's growing power to shape the future — and reviews the past and
possible future role of science in helping to respond to them.

Challenge of the Unknown

The urge to know the unknown, to explore the unexplored, and to
explain the unexplained is among the most universal of traits. Indeed,
curiosity and exploratory behavior are exhibited not only by Homo
sapiens but by other species of animals as well. Their prevalence
suggests that such behavior constitutes a "biological imperative,"
crucial to survival.

All cultures, past and present, attempt to explain the origin,
relationship, and fate of man and nature. Each culture fashions its own
response, and the results have been as diverse as the cultures
themselves, ranging from astrology to zoroastricfnism. The response,
in whatever form it may occur, shapes the aspirations, values, and
intellectual life of the culture.

Science has become a predominant response of modern cultures, a
response which differs from earlier ones in many ways. Science in
some respects is limited in its goals; it does not, for example, seek
answers to questions such as ultimate purpose. It concentrates instead
on observing and measuring the tangible, often through the use of
instruments which extend the senses into domains that are otherwise
inaccessible. Science is cumulative in an evolutionary way; it builds
upon its past but modifies itself by incorporating new insights superior
in explanatory power to existing ones. It is also self-testing and self-
correcting; errors may occur, but they are found and rectified
eventually. These basic and unique characteristics of science make it
the most successful response so far fashioned by man for pursuing and
unraveling the unknown.

Curiosity is not the sole motivation for scientific research. The
practical need for and the utility of scientific knowledge are often
prime reasons for seeking such understanding. This is illustrated by
astronomy, one of the oldest of the sciences, which was studied in
earlier days for the purpose of improving navigation as well as for
insights into the composition and organization of the universe. This
dual motivation of curiosity and utility is found in all scientific fields.
Thus, in addition to satisfying man's curiosity, science has proven to
have great impact on everyday life — from changing the physical
conditions of existence to the length of life itself. This potential
utilitarian "bonus," which can be gained when scientific knowledge is
applied to practical ends, is so sizeable in general that a motive for basic
research is often the potential applications that may flow from it. This
flow, however, extends in the other direction as well — applications
raise questions requiring further research. In fact, the reciprocal
relationship between knowledge and utility, between insight and
application, focuses and invigorates each.

In spite of the advances made in scientific knowledge — and in part
because of the unanswered questions such advances reveal — science
still faces many challenges. Some of the more specific of these are
noted elsewhere in the report. But perhaps the most general and
fundamental challenge now facing science is that of achieving better
understanding of highly complex phenomena that involve a large
number of interacting components, i.e., systems of "organized
complexity." The behavior of the global atmosphere, the organization
and functioning of the human brain, and the dynamics of a social
institution or a larger social system are examples of such phenomena
which are little understood at present. (New insights from further
research, however, may reveal that such phenomena are less complex
than they now appear.)

Historically, science has advanced primarily through the study of
less complex aspects of nature, by isolating individual components and
seeking to understand their characteristics through observation,
analysis, and experiment. The understanding of such relatively simple
phenomena provides the basis for almost all modern technology.
Problems of organized complexity, on the other hand, require a broad,
integrative approach, combining the methods and insights from many
individual scientific disciplines and, perhaps, even radically new
concepts and methodologies that transcend individual disciplines.
Large-scale modeling and simulation are needed to synthesize the
diverse knowledge regarding these complex areas, to uncover the
underlying dynamics of the problems, and to project the future course
of their development. An indispensable tool in these efforts is the
enormous data-handling capacity of computers.

Until the level of understanding of such complicated phenomena
is significantly improved, science will fall short of meeting the
challenges in this area.

Challenges from Nature

Recent history records a succession of advances against threats
from the natural environment — disease, famine, the elements — yet
many threats remain. Major battles against disease have been won
since the turn of the century. Many infectious diseases have yielded to
immunizations, to antibiotics, and to public sanitation. Typhoid fever,
diphtheria, tuberculosis, and scarlet fever are largely controlled, while
other diseases such as osteomyelitis and mastoiditis seldom occur in
this country today. As recently as 1950 more than 20,000 cases of
poliomyelitis were reported annually in the United States, but 15 years
later the incidence had fallen to nearly zero.

There remain, however, numerous diseases and disabilities which
take their toll. Among these are major killers such as cancer and heart
diseases; serious disabilities such as arthritis, asthma, and diabetes;
and many less prevalent or less serious mental and physical afflictions.
Present scientific knowledge provides, at best, means for "managing"
these afflictions and diseases, rather than for preventing or curing
them. The inherently high cost of such management — the expense for
the patient and the heavy claims on the often restricted resources of
the health system — prevents even this limited health care from being
available to all who need it. A prerequisite for prevention and cure is
better understanding of the fundamental biological processes
involved. Such knowledge is the basis — the only basis — for advancing
beyond mere management to prevention and cure.

The reduction of "premature" deaths from disease has been
largely responsible for the lengthened life expectancy in the United
States — up from just under 50 years at the beginning of this century to
almost 70 years by midcentury. The life expectancy of persons over 50,
however, increased only marginally during the period with the
greatest gains occurring for women. This illustrates why challenges
remain in spite of past progress: as infant and adolescent mortality was
reduced, adult diseases took a greater proportionate toll.

Significant advances have been made against famine and
malnutrition, based in large part on increasing knowledge of
agricultural and animal science, plant genetics, fertilizer, insect
control, and food processing. But total success has not been achieved in
spite of sustained advances in agricultural production. These gains
have been offset by the rapid growth in human population (an increase
abetted by the success in suppressing human diseases), by adverse
climate and weather conditions in certain parts of the world such as
the sub-Sahara region, and by several factors which inhibit equitable
distribution and optimal consumption of foods. Furthermore,
advances in food production have been achieved at considerable cost:
the extensive use of fertilizers and pesticides has damaged the

environment, and vulnerable monocultures have been substituted for
the natural diversity of plant life. This illustrates how progress in
dealing with one problem can generate side effects which may
themselves become problems to be understood and alleviated.

Malnutrition is still very much a part of the world scene, in this
country and elsewhere. And because its existence in many cases is due
to cultural and social factors rather than to food shortages, per se,
malnutrition represents a problem for the social sciences as much as
for the biological and physical sciences.

Considerable progress has been made in providing protection
from the normal threats of the elements. But the effects of hurricanes
and tornadoes, major floods, long-term droughts, and earthquakes are
still largely uncontrolled. In the past few years remarkable progress
has been achieved in predicting the location and occurrence of
earthquakes, leading to the possible development in the near future of
an earthquake warning system. In addition to prediction, much now
can be done to reduce the economic and human loss of earthquakes;
advances in antiseismic design of housing, as well as improvement of
regional zoning practices based on developing knowledge of the
earthquake process, are now feasible. Even the eventual control of
earthquakes is not beyond possibility, as suggested by recent
experiments in which earthquakes were initiated and stopped by first
injecting and then withdrawing water from deep wells.

The vulnerability to severe storms has increased, as a result of the
greater density of population and valuable capital facilities. The early
warning of such storms by weather satellites and other observational
techniques, however, has greatly reduced the loss of life and damage to
property that would have occurred. The ability to manipulate weather
conditions purposefully and safely is perhaps just beyond present
capabilities, whereas the ability to affect weather and climatic
conditions, unintentionally and even unknowingly, grows daily.

This cursory review of some of the challenges from the natural
environment does not do justice either to past successes or to
remaining problems. It does, however, illustrate some general points.
Challenges are endless; success with one problem often leads to the
discovery or creation of others. Challenges are interrelated; progress
in dealing with one problem may be enhanced or nullified by progress
or failure in other related problems. And challenges are dynamic;
apparent success in an earlier time period may become apparent failure
in a later one. This does not mean that progress is an illusion. It means
that new challenges emanate from change and from progress
itself — from changes in the natural environment, from advances in
knowledge, from changes in social values, and from expanded human
aspirations.

Challenges of Society

The challenges in this category are almost limitless: international
strife, discrimination, crime and delinquency, and the spectrum of
interpersonal and intergroup conflicts. Individual and social problems
appear to be intrinsic to social life itself. While the nature and extent of
such problems change over time, and differ from one society to
another, the benefits of social life are always accompanied by stresses
that engender problems.

Virtually all present societies exhibit conflict and turmoil. There
are several possible reasons for this in the case of the United States.
American society is heterogeneous in race, in national origin, and in
socioeconomic level. It is a rapidly changing society — culturally,
physically, and technologically. It is sufficiently affluent to explore and
innovate deliberately, trying and testing new ideas in all realms from
business to religion, but its material affluence has not brought an
equal measure of psychological well-being. It allows for a diversity of
subcultures and variegated life styles. And it encourages the
aspiration — but does not always provide the commensurate
opportunity — for the social mobility and progress of each individual.

These are not the ingredients for a static and self-satisfied society.
They produce instead an experimenting society that is dynamic and
seeking and, therefore, sometimes frustrated. Strains on social
institutions and individuals are likely to persist, and possibly even
worsen, as the result of several disparate conditions and trends such
as: declining birth rate and consequent aging of the population; high
rates of inflation; limited access to medical care; a high level of crime
against people and property; and differences between the races and
sexes in employment opportunities and income.

Specific social problems may persist for long periods in spite of
efforts to resolve them. A study of social trends by a presidential
commission expressed concern about the level of crime; the extent of
poverty; the "sprawl of great cities"; the role of women outside the
home; and the "consumer and his perplexities." This study was
published in 1933. Its contemporary tenor illustrates the tenacity of
many social problems.

The obstacles to dealing effectively with such problems are
several:

• Problems are difficult to define. The extent and severity of such
problems are often unknown, the causes obscure and
indirect, and boundaries of the problems diffuse and shifting.
Efforts to define problems precisely enough to attack them
may omit possible remedial alternates or neglect important
social values.

• Problems are imbedded in a complex system. Problems are closely
interrelated, making it difficult to treat one effectively
without treating the whole or without adversely affecting
connected problems. These interdependencies strain the
capacity of social institutions, whose vitality and scope may
be less than the force and breadth of the problems
themselves.

• Problems may be heightened by other developments. Rapid changes of
almost any kind may produce at least temporary disruptions
in a system which is so tightly interconnected. Increasing
population and urbanization are but two factors which
intensify already existing strains.

• Possible resolutions may threaten values and vested interests. Potential
approaches to alleviating social problems may conflict with
deeply held beliefs, especially if they involve the
redistribution of political, economic, and social power.

• Inadequate knowledge impedes action. The necessary knowledge
for predicting the individual and social reactions to public
policies or actions does not yet exist.

These are only a few of the obstacles in meeting the social
challenges. The tasks which these problems pose for science are
immense. Although they involve the whole of science, the tasks apply
particularly to the least developed of the disciplines — the behavioral
and social sciences. These disciplines need to be significantly
strengthened, in both their basic and applied aspects, if the Nation is to
respond more successfully to its social problems. Although knowledge
alone does not guarantee success, its lack almost certainly reduces the
chance and extent of progress.

The prime deficiencies of the knowledge base are inadequate
information on the current state of society and lack of detailed data
about particular individual and social problems. The expansion of
effort in the social indicators area, as well as in large survey research, is
essential for correcting these deficiencies. A related requirement is
improved methods for gathering data and for analyzing and
synthesizing the findings in forms relevant to social action. The
significance of scientific information is that it can provide evidence for
needed social change as well as suggest courses of action. Such
information, if definitive, can be used to counter inertia or "vested
interests," which are frequently the chief obstacles to social reform.
Finally, and most fundamental, is the need for general, comprehensive
theories of the individual and of the structure and dynamics of social
systems. No such broad theories now exist that are based upon data,
except in the field of economics. Such theories are necessary to:

8

(a) predict the consequences of proposed policies,

(b) provide guidance for collecting data relevant to possible
policies and problem areas, and

(c) provide confidence to the general public and officials of
the necessity and wisdom of the action, in order to generate
the political will for implementing the proposed policies.

Efforts to develop the necessary knowledge — in data and
theory — may encounter some peculiar difficulties. The knowledge
gained may remain valid for only a relatively short period of time,
because of the incessant change which people and social institutions
undergo. There is, in addition, the possibility that the objects of study
may be modified by the very act of studying them. These essentially
methodological problems may be solved, but they do suggest that until
that time the general propositions of the social sciences may lack the
immutability that is usually associated with laws in the natural
sciences.

The natural and social sciences differ in another important way.
Both observation and experiments are used as methods of research in
the natural sciences whereas observation alone is the primary method
of the social sciences. The limited use of experimental methods
seriously impedes development of the social sciences. Although there
often are constraints against their use, increased efforts should be
made to find acceptable forms of experimentation in social areas. A
start in this direction is illustrated by recent experiments in education
financing and income maintenance, which were designed to test the
feasibility of approaches to these problems prior to legislative action.

Challenges of Man's Increasing Power

Over the past 100 years man's ability to modify, even irreversibly,
the worldwide habitat has grown enormously. This is due partly to
simple increase in numbers — the population explosion — but also to
growing technological capabilities. Challenges of this type are the
prime concern of this report.

Compared with the other types, these challenges are less familiar
and often lead either to exaggerated fears or to complacency — to panic
response or to irresponsible inertia. Such responses frequently arise
from the lack of knowledge. The sparse evidence available admits of
many different interpretations, biased by different political
predilections or social values, and the distinction between fact and
value becomes more blurred the more inadequate the understanding.

In a fuller sense, though, clear and adequate description of these
emerging problems is exceedingly difficult. First, "simple" trend
extensions do not foretell what is going to happen. Indeed, the

568-953 O - 75 - 3

incompatibility of different trends assures that they cannot all
continue. Thus, simple extension of current trends shows an
impossible future — not a likely one. The real difficulty in foreseeing
the future is in perceiving which trends will change, when, and how,
and what trends now so insignificant in magnitude as to be barely
perceptible will grow into the major influencing factors in the future.
It is these latter factors that are the storm signals of the future, and
that require extensive knowledge of the multitude of related factors
and a deep understanding of their interactions. The requisite
knowledge and understanding are frequently unavailable.

A second difficulty is the growing interrelatedness of these
problems. Population growth, food production, energy demands,
mineral resources, environmental pollution, for example, are not
independent problems. Because of these interdependencies, it is
increasingly difficult to find solutions to one problem that do not
aggravate another or create a new problem. The requirement of
emission controls on automobiles which increase fuel consumption,
the banning of phosphate detergents in favor of caustics which are
hazardous to children, and the substitution of pesticides for DDT
which are less damaging to birds but more harmful to humans
illustrate this difficulty. One of the most striking characteristics of the
future probably lies in its increasing interdependencies.

There is a final difficulty. Most of the problems that can be
foreseen have so far shown only a small part of themselves. Popular
attention and governmental concern tend to focus on these current
manifestations of problems — even though they are often little more
than precursive symptoms — with the result that actions intended as
remedial are often halfway measures. An illustration of this is the use
of catalysts in conjunction with the internal combustion engine, rather
than the development of a new type of engine that would be
intrinsically nonpoUuting. Efforts that deal with symptoms often leave
the underlying problems misunderstood or neglected, and may even
be counterproductive. It is this — the response to symptoms — that
gives the impression of moving from crises to crises, each m.ore
unexpected than the last.

10

CHALLENGE OF MAN'S POWER

Several of the growing problems presented by man's increasing
power will be discussed in this section. The purpose is not, however, to
suggest that these problems are well understood. The aim, instead, is
to delineate some of the many inadequacies of current scientific
understanding — deficiencies which prevent discerning interpretation
of the problems and viable options for resolving them.

Population and Health

The "population" problem is broad in scope, ranging from the
explosive growth in the number of people to matters of nutrition and
health and to the question of the ultimate "carrying capacity" of the
finite planet. The boundaries of the problem are diffuse and
transitory, changing as new knowledge reveals new problems, new
possibilities, and unexpected ramifications.

No single factor is likely to have so pervasive an effect on the
character and quality of life as the total number of human beings. "It
took all of history to the year 1850 to produce a world population of
one billion; it took only 100 years for the second billion, and 30 for the
third; it is taking only about 15 years for the fourth and it will take less
than 10 years for the fifth billion. What these striking figures indicate
is that the world cannot sustain such a growth for very long."i Indeed,
the belief is growing that the world population has now reached a level
at which further increases — especially rapid increases such as at
present — will seriously impair the quality of life for all.

Yet even if the birth rate, worldwide, were to decline next year to
the replacement rate of only two children per couple, world population
would level off eventually at about 50 percent above what it is now,
due to the age distribution of the present population. If zero

' S. J. Segal, "Population Growth: Challenge to Science," in The Greatest Adventure:
Basic Research That Shapes Our Lives, Kone and Jordan (eds.). The Rockefeller University
Press, 1974.

11

population growth were achieved Within the next 15 years, the
ultimate world population would be 2.5 to 3.0 times larger than
present. Thus, efforts to stabilize population size must reckon with
long lead times during which the population would continue to grow.

The current grov.'th rate in population is caused more by a decline
in gross death rate than by an increase in birth rates, although both
have occurred. That decline, in turn, is attributable to improvements
in public health methods (water sanitation, nutritional programs,
vaccines, for example), as well as higher living standards and the
disappearance of some of the agents of disease and death. The
continuing growth in population size underlies many problems and
exacerbates almost all others, in many developing countries and
increasingly in the industrialized world. It particularly frustrates the
goal of elevating living standards in the developing world, a goal which
seems largely obviated by projections of a doubling of the present
world population by the turn of the century. The greater portion of
this increase in population will come from the developing nations,
where the rate of growth is some 2.5 percent a year as compared with 1
percent in the industrialized countries. This will intensify even more
the urgent need for greater supplies of food for the very countries
least able to expand their production.

Reduction in the growth of population, and perhaps its
stabilization, appears imperative if developing nations are to
attain — and developed nations are to maintain — a level of material
existence which provides adequate education, health, and social
welfare for all people. A crucial element in the control of population is
the desire of individuals to regulate the size of their families. The
translation of this desire into actual population control appears to
depend upon economic and social incentives for limiting family size.
Incentives prevailing in many countries, however, favor the large
family. Although it is evident — from the experiences of this country
and others — that family planning can be practiced effectively with
present contraceptive techniques, fertility control measures which are
simpler, more reliable, and cheaper are needed.

A world which so sanctifies human life as to limit the growth of its
numbers will demand not only a better standard of living but also
improvement in the health of its people. Indeed, if families are not
assured that their offspring will be born healthy and remain so,
prospects for limiting family size may be correspondingly diminished.
For much of the world, health is still conditioned by two primitive
factors: nutrition and protection from parasites. In the tropical belt
many people suffer from inadequate nutrition, especially insufficient
protein. Malnutrition results primarily from inadequate food
production and deficient distribution due to the lack of purchasing
power of the poorest fraction of the population. It sometimes results,
however, from social customs leading to dietary habits that are

12

nutritionally inadequate. Thus, while malnutrition is most prevalent
in poor countries, it is by no means absent in rich nations, even among
the most affluent of the population.

Although remote from current experience in our own country,
the problems of parasitic infestation remain large in many parts of the
world. Schistosomiasis claims millions of lives annually and debilitates
many more; no effective means of control is yet in use. Malaria
remains a major health problem despite spectacular gains. The
primary method of controlling this disease at present involves the use
of pesticides, chiefly DDT. Although use of DDT on the scale required
to combat malaria may not represent a serious environmental hazard,
other means of control that are inexpensive and ecologically safe are
needed. These are only two of the many parasite-induced diseases
found in much of the developing-world.

In more affluent nations the problems of malnutrition and
parasitic infection are diminishing, along with numerous other
classical afflictions, endocrine disorders, most bacterial infections,
some insect-borne diseases, and those viral diseases now preventable
by immunization. These achievements have come from advances in
the biological sciences over the last few decades. In the place of these
diseases, man is now confronted with two general categories of major
afflictions: those loosely classed as degenerative disorders, including
cancer, and those of genetic origin. Degenerative disorders now
dominate medical practice in much of the developed world. They
account for the bulk of the $80 million of annual expenditure for
health care in the United States, much of which goes for "halfway
medical technologies" capable of managing the diseases to some
extent, but not of preventing or curing them.

The second general category of disease — diseases of genetic
origin — are now growing in relative importance. Three decades ago,
only a dozen or so genetic disorders had been identified; today the list
is nearer to a thousand, including some 150 diseases in which the
specific nature of the genetic defect is known. The identification of
these many genetic disorders was made possible by advances in
scientific and medical knowledge. Now that they have been identified,
means for treating them must be sought. This illustrates how
advances in scientific understanding lead to rising expectations and
aspirations.

At present, nongenetic therapy is the most common mode of
treating these diseases, an approach which results in the further
dissemination of the defective genes in the population at large.
Diabetes is a case in point. Before the advent of insulin, juvenile
diabetics seldom lived long enough to reproduce, but since insulin
therapy became available 50 years ago, many survive and reproduce,
thereby transmitting the defective genes and increasing the incidence
of diabetes. If similar approaches are used for other genetic disorders

13

(e.g., sickle cell anemia and phenylketonuria), the result, although
intrinsically desirable with respect to protecting the individual life,
could become a growing public health problem for the general
population.

These many diverse but related problems of "population" call for a
correspondingly diverse set of responses from science and technology.
Population control may be enhanced by better understanding of the
personal, social, and economic motivations for large families, as well as
by more knowledge of the chemistry and physiology of reproduction
and its translation into new chemical approaches to birth control. In
the area of nutrition, opportunities exist for raising the protein
content of foods in tropical and semitropical lands through such means
as genetic engineering of cereals, development of synthetic protein for
enriching the diet, and greater production of fish protein through the
use of aquaculture. In the case of degenerative and genetic disorders,
much more knowledge is needed of the fundamental aspects of cellular
and multicellular life, regardless of the particular disease of concern.
This requires basic advances in the biological sciences which depend, in
part, on continued stimulation from related disciplines, most notably
chemistry and physics.

Problems of health, like problems of population control, are
ethical-social-economic-biological problems. Efforts to cope with them
must be guided by advancing insights across the full spectrum of
dimensions.

General References

World Population: The Task Ahead, CESI/WPY 10, Centre for Economic and Social
Information, United Nations, 1973.

Rapid Population Groioth: Consequences and Policy Implications, National Academy of
Sciences, The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1971.

Primary Productivity

Only two of the many important aspects of this problem have
been selected for discussion here: world food supply and demand and
the maintenance of natural ecosystems.

The term "primary productivity" refers to the process by which
plants utilize sunlight for the synthesis of organic materials. It is this
process that supports the life of all the biosphere. Primary productivity
by green plants supplies food, fuel, and fiber (cotton, lumber, and pulp)
as well as ecosystems of great diversity. The vegetated surface of the
Earth, in addition, receives wastes, cools the atmosphere, and helps to
maintain the soil in a productive state. Plants supply the bulk of human
food, primarily in the form of cereals which are consumed directly, or
indirectly through animals that feed on grain. It has been estimated

14

that two-thirds of the cultivated cropland is planted with cereals and
that more than 50 percent of our direct energy intake comes from
grain such as rice and wheat.

Food production has increased enormously during this century.
Although the increase in land devoted to crops accounts for much of
the growth, science and technology have contributed in major ways.
Selective breeding, based on genetics, has resulted in highly
productive new breeds. The mechanization of agriculture has raised
productivity substantially. Irrigation has played a significant role by
making possible and profitable the cultivation of areas otherwise
unusable or marginally productive. The extensive use of chemical
fertilizers — which has been estimated to account for at least a fourth
of the total food supply — can triple or quadruple the productivity of
soils when used in conjunction with other inputs and appropriate
practices. Finally, the chemical control of diseases, insects, and weeds
has helped greatly in reaching the present high level of food
production.

Despite these gains, it is increasingly difficult to meet the growing
world demand for food. The present mismatch between food supply
and demand has many signs: the recent abrupt decrease in food
supplies at a time of increasing demand; massive purchases of grain on
the world market, such as the Soviet Union's large purchase of wheat
from the United States and China's from Canada; depletion of grain
reserves; rapidly rising food prices around the world; and, most
distressing, starvation among the peoples of sub-Sahara Africa and
some areas of Asia.

The causes of the disparity between supply and demand are
numerous. Bad weather in many parts of the world in recent years
reduced the level of food production. Cutbacks in the acreage devoted
to wheat were made by the major grain exporting countries (Australia,
Canada, and the United States) in the late 1960's and early 1970's in an
effort to maintain price levels. Grain reserves in North America, long
used to redress shortages occurring elsewhere, were allowed to
decline in order to meet the growing demand. The supply problem was
worsened also by the decline in the world's fish catch, the most
mysterious element of which was the temporary disappearance of
anchovetta off the Peruvian coast — a source of 20 percent of the entire
world catch of fish.

Two factors, both of a long-term nature, figure prominently in
present and future relationships between supply and demand:
continuing population growth and the rising demand for more food of
higher quality, primarily animal protein, in Europe, Japan, and the
USSR.

Although food production has advanced rapidly, so has
population. The growth in food production has been roughly the same

15

in developed and poor countries for many years, but the more rapid
growth of population in the poor nations has absorbed virtually all
their gains in food production. As a result, two-thirds of mankind is
hungry and malnourished much of the time. Continued population
growth, increasing costs of energy for agricultural production,
shortage of fertilizer and its three-fold price increase, and rampant
inflation, make the prospects bleak for the developing world to acquire
the food needed to stave off starvation in the years ahead.

Nations with high and rising per capita incomes — particularly in
Europe and Japan — are turning away from rice and wheat staples and
increasing their consumption of animal protein. The high demand for
meat in affluent countries reduces the grain available for direct
consumption in the rest of the world. The substitution of meat for
cereals, moreover, is an inefficient pattern of consumption: as a rule,
seven pounds of grain are needed to produce one pound of beef, four
pounds to produce one pound of pork, and three pounds for one of
poultry. An additional cost of the substitution is an increasing
incidence of degenerative diseases associated with animal protein and
high fat diets.

Food production can be expected to increase in response to
growing demand. Land suitable for crops, but held out of production,
can be turned to agriculture. Over 55 million acres of such land was
made available in the United States between 1972-74 for the planting
of wheat, corn, and other grains. Less suitable land throughout the
world can be converted to agriculture, although the costs and often
limited availability of inputs (e.g., water, energy, and fertilizers) as
well as environmental damage ultimately constrain such expansion.
But perhaps the greatest potential for increased production lies in
tropical agriculture. These regions, which offer the possibility of
multiple annual crops, have only a small fraction of their land under
cultivation. Moreover, they include countries which have the most
critical shortages of food and the least ability to purchase it elsewhere.
Tropical regions, however, are believed to have a delicate ecological
balance, which may restrict food production to relatively low levels.
Determination of possible ecological constraints is an urgent matter
which should precede large efforts aimed at expanding production in
these regions.

Further gains in productivity can be achieved through the wider
application of modern agricultural technologies: mechanization,
irrigation, fertilization, and control of weeds and insects. Each of
these, however, has unwanted side effects or calls for expensive
energy inputs. Mechanized agriculture, for example, requires
expenditures of energy that may be far greater than the energy
embodied in the food produced. Irrigation may raise the water table to
such an extent that the growth of plants is eventually inhibited by
waterlog or by salt deposits that develop just beneath the surface soil.

16

This situation has developed in West Pakistan where extensive
irrigation has been used. Chemical fertilizers produce various hazards,
such as the pollution of drinking water and the eutrophication of
bodies of fresh water. The chemical control of insects and weeds,
through the use of DDT and other chlorinated hydrocarbons,
threatens many species of animal life.

Such costs and impacts as these may inhibit the spread of the
"green revolution" — the application of high yield seed strains and
modern technologies. This prospect arises from the fact that the new
strains have high yields largely because they respond well to fertilizer,
irrigation water, and pesticides.

Scientific research may yield means for overcoming several of
these problems and side effects. Research in genetics may lead to plant
strains that grow well in saline soils. Better understanding of nitrogen
fixation could provide the basis for enhancing natural fixation
processes and thereby lessen the dependence on chemical fertilizers.
Similarly, new approaches to controlling pests — such as rapidly
degradable pesticides or biological control, as exemplified by the mass
sterilization of screwworm flies — can reduce significantly the need for
the older forms of chemical control. Beyond this, research may provide
means for enhancing agricultural productivity in several ways,
ranging from methods of accelerating the photosynthesis process to
the growth of plants in a liquid nutrient rather than in soil.

Whether the world food situation improves or worsens in the
years ahead depends upon many factors such as: population growth,
global climate, demand for animal protein, availability and cost of
agricultural inputs, economic incentives for food production, and
advances in science and technology. Since the future course of these
factors cannot be foreseen, it is not known if the world faces a chronic
food supply problem or a state of temporary shortages which will ease
in the coming years. Population growth at current rates, however, will
continue to exert immense pressures on the food production capability
of the world.

In developing his agricultural system, man has selected a few
plants with which he has achieved high productivity through
extensive cultivation. This has led to a high degree of dependence on
"monocultures" as the prime source of food. The long-term instability
of intensive monoculture as practiced in the United States and
elsewhere has become evident in the increased susceptibility to insect
pests and pathogens. Cotton culture had to be abandoned in several
areas of this continent because insects feeding on the plant developed
resistance to all pesticides. The vulnerability of certain high-yield
strains of plants used in monoculture was demonstrated in the
summer of 1970 by the billion dollar loss of corn to blight, which
occurred in large areas of the United States. Intensive monocultures,
furthermore, are vulnerable to small climatic changes and heavily

17

568-953 O - 75 - 4

dependent upon fossil fuel for fertilizer, farm machinery, and
irrigation. The decreasing availability and increasing cost of such fuels
threaten the current level of high productivity.

This concentration on intensive monocultures has reduced
significantly the diversity of the ecology. It has brought many species
to extinction and reduced the variety of natural ecosystems. To
counter this continuing trend toward monocultures, diversified "gene
pools" must be established and maintained. Critical to future needs,
particularly to needs u^hich cannot be readily predicted, is a great
variety of genetic stock among species of plants and animals. Yet the
tendency has been to ignore many of the food stocks of primitive
societies and to destroy vast regions of natural ecosystems which
contain a desirable degree of organic diversity. The accelerating
destruction of tropical ecosystems is an example of this trend.

Natural or seminatural ecosystems are essential for an
industrialized civilization which consumes enormous amounts of
energy and materials and ejects the spent by-products, wastes, and
pollutants into the environment. Living ecosystems are needed to
assimilate these by-products and to regenerate the essential properties
of the physical world.

The research needs in this vast area are much too numerous to
cite more than a small fraction of the major requirements. Better
understanding is needed of the processes of primary productivity and
the complex web of organic and inorganic interactions evolved from it.
This includes greater knowledge of the fundamental physiological and
ecological processes by which plants function within their habitats.
Understanding is lacking of how these events are coupled into the
complex biochemistry of metabolism within the plant. Such insight is
essential to better crop production and is necessary for understanding
such fundamental ecological phenomena as plant adaptation,
distribution, succession, competition, and production within
ecosystems.

Further research is needed to understand better the nitrogen
fixation process and the role played by bacteria and fungi. Improved
knowledge in this area is required to find natural operating nitrogen
fixation processes that would reduce the need for chemical fertilizers.

Advances in genetics are needed to enhance the genetic
manipulation and breeding of improved plant and animal species, as
well as to develop and maintain gene pools. Enhanced crop yield,
heightened disease resistance, improved protein content, increased
utilization efficiency of soil nutrient and water supply are all possible
through genetic selection. Such selection may be accomplished to a
degree by traditional breeding, but greater success may result from
such newly developed techniques as tissue culture transformation,
somatic hybridization, or other as yet undiscovered methods.

18

General References

The Primary Production of the Biosphere, a symposium given at the Second
Congress of the American Institute of Biological Sciences reported in Human
Ecology, Vol. 1(4), pp. 301-368, 1973.

Whittaker, R. H., Communilies and Ecosystems, Macmillan Company, 1970.

Energy

There is little need in these times to call attention to the problem
of energy. It is mentioned here simply to illustrate the nature of the
problem, how it arose and the likely future prospects, the
interrelatedness of energy and other problems, and the general role of
science and technology in the energy area. (The implications of the
energy problem for basic research and technology are discussed in
more detail in the next chapter.)

The energy problem of 1973-74 has been emerging over the last
few decades: consumption of energy rose rapidly; major reliance was
placed increasingly on one form of energy (petroleum); and the supply
of this energy shifted from domestic to foreign sources. Ample
warning had been given of the likely consequences of this combination
of trends. But possibly the problem was too complex, too vast in scope,
and too distant on the time horizon for the capacity of the institutions
which are responsible for dealing with it. The bulk of the broader
energy problem lies in the future. It remains to be seen whether recent
events lead to a greater concern for the long-run future, or to a false
confidence in the Nation's capability to cope with any crisis after it
arises.

In past decades, energy has been cheap and abundant in the United
States. It has recently become more expensive, and mismatches have
occurred between available supplies and demand. These conditions
became severe in the past year, only in part because of reductions in
the supply of mid-East oil. While many factors underlie the problem,
most are related to the phenomenal growth which has characterized
petroleum consumption in the United States and, even more, in the
rest of the developed world.

Accelerating strain on fossil fuel resources is the inevitable
consequence of exponential growth in demand. Given anticipated
growth rates in world energy consumption of three or four percent
annually, and given current estimates of ultimately recoverable
reserves, worldwide exhaustion of natural gas may be anticipated in
this century, and of oil early in the next century. Even if present
estimates of ultimately recoverable resources are unduly pessimistic,
this will postpone the day of reckoning only a few decades, so long as
demand continues its exponential growth.

19

The Nation could obviously survive with lower rates of oil
consumption. Why, then, have recent changes in supply and price been
disruptive? A part of the answer is that, once accustomed to a certain
level of consumption, that level becomes a "need." But a more
important part of the answer is that the energy distribution system
and the transportation and manufacturing structure are all closely
connected and rather finely attuned to each other and to current
patterns of international trade. Sudden, major changes disrupt the
system, and a long time period is required for adjustment. During this
period, the supply of energy may oscillate between shortages and
surpluses and prices may rise and fall, as efforts are made to alter the
overall system so that energy supply and demand can be brought into
balance. Problems of this sort will tend to recur in such systems unless
adjustment times can be shortened, or capabilities to anticipate are
improved, or redundancies or cushions are built into the systems.
Since many of the disruptions are political in origin, and cannot be fully
anticipated, redundancy among alternative energy sources and
greater storage capacity would appear necessary as insurance. For
these several reasons, "energy" is likely to remain a serious matter for
many years; only the aspects of concern will change.

The energy problem illustrates the increasing interrelatedness of
different problems. The demand for energy imposed by the world's
increasing need for food has already been noted. The demand for
energy to obtain, to reclaim, and to process mineral resources is also
part of the total energy problem. The design of human settlement
patterns — the design of cities and of the living and working
environments— will have great effect, for better or worse, on energy
consumption. In turn, the availability and cost of energy will have a
profound effect on the future evolution of patterns of production and
settlement. And of course, the processes of obtaining fuel, of
transporting it, of generating electric power, of energizing the
transportation system and industrial plants — all constitute a major
part of the growing "environmental" problem.

The different roles that science plays in relation to the short-run
and long-run aspects of problems are well illustrated by the energy
area. In the short run it must be largely policy adjustments, rather
than new technological developments or basic economic or social
changes, that help cope with such problems. In the longer run,
technology, as well as economic and social changes, must provide
acceptable solutions.

The role of basic science differs for the different time periods. In
the short run, science must assist in the recognition and interpretation
of the problems, assessment of the available policy options, and
evaluation of the risks and likely results of the various choices
available. In the long run, its role is to provide the basis for new
options. In the short run, only the established fund of knowledge — the
results of basic research already completed — can help. In the long run.

20

additional basic research can expand the fund of knowledge and
overcome present inadequacies of understanding. These deficiencies
can prove costly in the interim. Some costly examples at present are
the insufficiency of reliable knowledge concerning the health effects
of air pollutants, limited understanding of the behavior of materials
under irradiation (which inhibits nuclear energy development),
limited research on reactor safety, limited knowledge with which to
develop alternatives to the internal combustion engine, and limited
geological knowledge concerning the amounts and locations of fuel
and mineral reserves in relatively unexplored areas.

General References

The Nation's Energy future, a report to the President of the United States, U.S.
Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C., 1973.

United States Energy Through the Year 2000, U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S.
Government Printing Office, Washington, DC., 1972.

Minerals

The problems known collectively as the "energy problem" have a
developing parallel in the minerals area. Trends in the use and supply
of nonfuel minerals closely parallel those existing at the time the
"energy problem" became generally recognized: increasing U.S.
dependence on foreign sources of supply, rapidly growing worldwide
demand for available supplies, and rising prices.

The U.S. is almost entirely dependent on foreign sources for such
critical minerals as asbestos, chromium, diamonds, manganese,
mercury, nickel, and tin while importing a large fraction of its needs
for others such as bauxite, copper, gypsum, potash, platinum, and zinc.
These and other minerals are a main source of metals and nonmetals
for machinery, chemicals, fertilizers, construction materials,
communications systems, and various consumer goods. An adequate
supply of minerals is indispensable to an industrialized society.

The accelerating problem of nonfuel minerals arises from
increasing worldwide demand. Even if the current rate of growth in
world mineral consumption leveled off, the anticipated demand for
many minerals between now and the end of the century would require
as much total production as in all previous history. Total mineral
consumption has reached such high levels that the supply problems
are not limited just to the United States. Even if the United States were
to reduce its consumption — and possibly its economic growth in
consequence — foreign demand for minerals will continue to rise. In
any event, the United States in the future will either import less
minerals or pay considerably more for them — and probably both.

21

The measures needed to avoid severe dislocations arising from
mineral shortages include substitution, conservation, and recycling.
Such measures emphasize the inseparability of the mineral, energy,
and environment problems. The recovery of metals and nonmetals
from ores and manufactured products requires energy; recycling and
substitution help to save both energy and natural resources, and may
improve the quality of the environment; recycling of metals usually
requires less energy than the recovery of the same metals from their
natural ores; and treating pollution leads, in many cases, to the
recovery of valuable materials as well as to reduced environmental
damage.

Recent scientific prospecting on land, based on predictive geology
and geophysics, has led to the discovery of several new mineral
deposits, such as copper in Arizona and lead in Missouri. In addition,
remote sensing — recently given a new dimension by the data returned
from NASA's ERTS-1 satellite — is pinpointing new target areas
around the world for minerals exploration.

Geological exploration and research continue to identify potential
new sources of scarce minerals. Recent deep-sea explorations suggest
that the "manganese nodule" beds on the sea floor may represent an
extensive supply of manganese, copper, nickel, and cobalt. In addition
to the sea's long-recognized supplies of phosphates for fertilizer,
deposits of iron, copper, zinc, nickel, and cobalt are being located.

Several major advances in the earth sciences over the last 15 years
have led to a greatly improved knowledge of geological processes,
which should contribute to understanding how and where ore
deposits form and thereby enhance the ability to predict the location of
concealed resources. Collectively, these new insights indicate that
useful ores are found where geophysical and geochemical processes
take place over sufficient periods of time and under sufficiently
extreme physical conditions to permit adequate differentiation and
concentration of minerals to occur. Certain continental margins are
likely areas for such conditions to have existed.

Very little, however, is known yet about the internal processes
involved; much further research is required to clarify them. It appears
that crustal plates, when approaching the continents, make a
downward plunge and thrust up kilometers-thick oceanic sediment.
These sediments are metamorphosed and transformed into the
continental rock that lies above. With more detailed exploration of
these margins and a better understanding of the chemical and physical
processes that take place within them, important ore bodies can
probably be located. These continuing advances in knowledge improve
the prospects of a long-term supply of important mineral resources.

While these advances are promising, other efforts need to be
expanded. Scientific research — particularly in fields of the earth

22

sciences such as geology, geochemistry, and geophysics — should be
accelerated in order to understand better how ore deposits are formed
and to improve techniques for finding them. Increased geological
exploration and advances in technology can help to locate concealed
deposits and make profitable the recovery of lower grade ores. New
technologies can reduce the demand for minerals by developing
methods for recycling current resources and substituting for less
available materials. Such efforts in science and technology, both in
research and in the number of experts trained, have been deficient in
the past. The widening dimensions of the "minerals problem" calls for
immediate expansion of these efforts.

General Reference

Mining and Minerals Policy, Second Annual Report of the Secretary of the Interior
under the Mining and Minerals Policy Act of 1970, U.S. Government Printing
Office, Washington, D.C., 1973.

Weather and Climate

This subject, like others discussed in the report, has more facets
than can be properly treated here. Two, however, merit particular
attention: intentional modification of weather and inadvertent
alteration of climate. The global importance of these facets, combined
with the increasing prospect of human intervention in each, make
both of them matters for concern.

The capability of modifying various severe weather conditions by
"cloud seeding" has been demonstrated in several experiments.
Seeding, for example, appears to reduce the high winds of hurricanes,
thereby lessening their destructiveness. Hurricane Agnes in 1972
provides a vivid illustration of the damage that can be caused by such
storms. Although Agnes was predicted several days in advance and the
movement closely monitored and widely reported, the hurricane still
caused some 120 deaths and $3.5 billion in property damage. On a
much more tragic scale was the tropical storm which devastated
Bangladesh in 1970, leaving at least 200,000 dead.

Cloud seeding technology, in addition, has proven effective in
suppressing hail storms (which cause considerable damage to farm
crops) and appears promising for reducing the damage from lightning.
And the dispersal of "cold" fog by seeding has become a common
operational technique at several airports.

A number of recent experiments appear to confirm that cloud
seeding, under favorable meteorological conditions, can increase (or
decrease) local rain or snowfall by a significant amount. The use of this
capability is increasingly proposed as a means to relieve drought
conditions and to help assure an adequate supply of water for

23

agricultural, industrial, and municipal uses. Cloud seeding technology
for these purposes, however, is still at an experimental stage. Before it
can be employed on a practical basis, much more must be learned about
the specific conditions under which a particular seeding treatment
produces the desired cloud response. In addition, the impact of
successful seeding in one region on the precipitation in adjacent and
distant regions must be better understood. Furthermore, the seeding
technology needs to be improved in order to provide for closer and
more reliable control over the extent of the modification.

But the most perplexing problems involved in modifying the
amount of rain and snow may not be scientific or technological. They
center, instead, around the economic, political, and social implications
of such weather modification. Unlike the mitigation of storms and
severe weather, almost any change in precipitation is likely to be
advantageous to some but harmful to others. Under these conditions,
how are the disadvantaged groups to be compensated? Modification in
one region may affect the precipitation in adjoining or even distant
regions. How is it to be decided when and where weather is to be
modified? These are only a few of the baffling issues that stand
between the present limited capability for modifying weather and the
realization of a system for managing precipitation.

While public attention has focused largely on intentional
modification of weather, there is growing concern over the possibility
of the inadvertent modification of climate. Specific examples of these
concerns include the recent debate over the possible effects of the SST
on the global atmosphere, impacts of the heat output from large power
plants, and the effects of the higher temperatures and particulate
emissions of cities on downwind rainfall.

Human activity may be involved on an even broader scale in
changing the global climate. The growth and pattern of agricultural
and industrial development over the last century may have influenced
the mean temperature of the world. Warming temperatures prevailed
for about 100 years, from the mid-19th to the mid-20th centuries,
following the "little ice age" which lasted some 200 years. During the
last 20-30 years, world temperature has fallen, irregularly at first but
more sharply over the last decade.

The cause of the cooling trend is not known with certainty. But
there is increasing concern that man himself may be implicated, not
only in the recent cooling trend but also in the warming temperatures
over the last century. According to this view, activities of the
expanding human population — especially those involved with the
burning of fossil fuels — raised the carbon dioxide content of the
atmosphere, which acts as a "greenhouse" for retaining the heat
radiated from the earth's surface. This, it is believed, may have
produced the warming temperatures after the mid-19th century. But
simultaneously, according to this view, growing industrialization and

24

the spread of agriculture introduced increasing quantities of dust into
the atmosphere which reduced the amount of solar radiation reaching
the earth. By the middle of this century, the cooling effect of the dust
particles more than compensated for the warming effect of the carbon
dioxide, and world temperature began to fall.

The colder temperatures have been accompanied by marked
changes in the circulation patterns of the atmosphere, which are prime
determiners of weather. Several consequences of these recent climatic
changes have been observed: midsummer frosts and record cold
autumns in the midwest of the United States, shortening of the crop
season in Great Britain, and the southward intrusion of sea-ice on the
shores of Iceland. Possibly linked to these changes in temperature and
circulation is the occurrence of an unusually large number of severe
storms in many parts of the world, and the development of a
calamitous drought belt extending around the world, passing through
the sub-Sahara, Middle East, India, China's Yangtze Valley, and
Central America.

The state of knowledge regarding climate and its changes is too
limited to predict reliably whether the present, unanticipated cooling
trend will continue, or to forecast probable changes in precipitation if
the trend persists. The practical consequences of an extended cooling
period — the effects on food production, energy consumption, and the
location of human settlements — make it important to monitor climatic
changes closely and widely, to determine their cause, particularly the
role of human activities, and to seek countermeasures.

The atmospheric sciences have advanced considerably in the last
20 years, in part because of access to sophisticated devices and facilities
developed for national defense and space purposes (e.g., high
resolution and doppler radar, high altitude aircraft, and rocket and
satellite observation platforms). One small indication of the progress
is the current ability to make 48-hour weather forecasts that are
comparable in quality to earlier 24-hour forecasts. While segments of
the total weather and climate system are yielding to understanding,
only in the most recent years has it been possible to begin studying the
system as a whole. Even now, only the broadest limits can be placed on
the magnitude of natural and man-made influences on weather and
climate. There is probably less agreement now, for example, on the
likely effects of carbon dioxide than there was a decade ago, when the
complexity of the overall system was not yet appreciated. There is also
lack of agreement as to whether the particulate content of the
atmosphere is primarily the product of human activity in agriculture
and industry or of natural causes such as volcanic dust.

Before such questions as these can be resolved, major advances
must be made in understanding the chemistry and physics of the
atmosphere and oceans, and in measuring and tracing particulates
through the system. Comprehensive models which integrate the

25

many interacting components of the system must be developed and
tested. Advances in technology are needed for measuring and
monitoring the system, as well as for ameliorating the deleterious
effects of man and nature. Finally, greater understanding of the
economic, legal, and social implications associated with changes in
weather and climate are needed.

General References

The Atmospheric Sciences and Man's Needs, National Academy of Sciences, 1971.

Inadvertent Climate Modification, Report of the Study of Man's Impact on Climate, MIT Press,
1971.

Environment

Environmental problems arise from the interaction between man
and his activities on the one hand and with resources, biota, and
environments on the other. Managing the environment so as to
maintain its viability, while satisfying human needs and aspirations, is
an increasingly formidable challenge.

There is a great variety of extant and potential problems of local or
temporary contamination of the environment. There are, in addition,
two general sets of problems which are of considerable concern:
irreversible entry of pollutants into the environment, and the
determination of tolerable levels of environmental contaminants.
Current knowledge is inadequate for dealing satisfactorily with either
set of problems.

Some materials, either synthetic or naturally occurring, when
dispersed in the environment are for all practical purposes
irretrievable. Once in the environment, the materials may accumulate
to harmful levels. One example of this is the heavy metals and fission
products produced in nuclear reactors and in nuclear explosions.
Another example of irreversible entry is the dispersion of solid small
particles such as fly ash, asbestos, and talc into the atmosphere. If
these particles are resistant to destruction, they become a part of the
earth's surface solids and are reintroduced continuously into the
atmosphere. The extant and potential effects of such atmospheric
mixing are not yet known. Most of these particles are probably
removed from the atmosphere by settling or in precipitation, but little
is known about the threat posed to human health by the particles after
they reach the earth's surface.

Asbestos particles illustrate this problem. They enter the
atmosphere in a variety of ways: in mining the material, in building
insulation, in the incineration of wastes, in the demolition of old
buildings. Asbestosis, lung cancer, and mesothelioma afflict workers

26

exposed to asbestos and even others less directly exposed, such as their
families. These toxic properties have only recently been recognized,
even though asbestos as a natural mineral has been used for centuries.

A second general set of problems concerns the determination of
acceptable levels of pollutants in our surroundings. Most pollutants
are naturally dispersed or removed, ultimately, from the environment.
But they can reach local concentrations which endanger health, either
because of accompanying unusual conditions (such as atmospheric
inversions) or through long-term, low-level exposure. Pollutants
occurring in this latter, more subtle, form may also produce
undesirable alterations in the chemistry of the planet, its climate, and
its complex ecologies. Compounding the problem is the possibility that
new pollutants may grow to a dangerous level before their deleterious
effects are detected. This is especially true when there is a long time lag
between exposure and the subsequent appearance of a deleterious
impact, e.g., in the case of aromatic amines and bladder cancer, a
decade or more intervenes between exposure and appearance of
lesions.

The rational determination of acceptable concentration levels of
pollutants is a vexing problem — for society and science. "Safe" limits
may be set which are more stringent than necessary, thus imposing
excessive economic and social costs; on the other hand, if limits are set
too liberally, the resulting damage — seen only in retrospect — to the
environment and health may be great.

The current stock of knowledge regarding the environment is
more descriptive than explanatory and predictive. Base line
measurements are needed to gauge changes in the state of the
environment, and improved analysis of ecological structure and
process is required to forecast the environmental consequences of
alternative policies and technologies. Two general approaches are
available for expanding the stock of knowledge. The first consists of
tracing pollutants through the environment in an effort to determine
their sources, routes, rates, and fates, which helps to reveal the
environmental interactions as well as the opportunities to prevent,
control, or repair ecological damage. The second approach involves the
response of ecosystems — their organisms, productivity, and
structure — to perturbations that exceed the normal range of
environmental change.

New approaches and improved research strategies are needed,
especially for setting acceptable limits on pollutant levels associated
with long-term, low-level exposure. One such approach is based on
the possibility that changes in the community structure of land or
marine organisms may yield clear and timely signals of harmful levels
of pollutants in advance of chemical detection. The detection of
chromosome aberration or changes in physiology in both higher and
lower organisms may also be a useful approach. Several

27

methodological problems must be overcome, however, before these
and similar approaches can provide reliable, early-warning signals of
impending threats.

It is clear that environmental problems are often not exclusively
scientific in character, in that they involve human values and economic
and social considerations, as well as scientific knowledge. The
aesthetic value of wild landscapes or the desirability of urban open
space illustrates this characteristic. Science can provide understanding
and alternatives based on knowledge, but society must choose from
among the alternatives based on th^^relative importance it attaches to
the values affected.

General References

Patterns and Perspectives in Environmental Science, National Science Foundation, U.S.
Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C., 1972.

Man's Impact on the Global Environment, Assessment and Recommendation for Action, MIT
Press, 1970.

The Challenges in Perspective

The primeval challenge of the unknown and a multitude of
challenges of the natural environment still confront us. Social
problems, though greatly changed, still persist and in some ways have
intensified in recent years. But it is the challenges created by man's
increasing power to shape the future that are escalating most
dramatically.

Because of the interdependences characterizing the modern
world and because of the rapid rates of change, challenges such as
those outlined are becoming more difficult to cope with — difficult both
for society at large and for the scientific community.
Interdependencies strain the capacities of organizations and decision
processes. Problems now cut across the organizational and
jurisdictional boundaries that were more or less congruent with
problems in the past. Informed decisions now require assessment of a
multitude of ramifications and interactions, but the extensive
knowledge and understanding needed for these assessments are not
always available, nor are institutional incentives always present to
encourage such assessments.

Rapid rates of change place additional burdens on organizations
and decision processes. Rapid change, while diminishing the
opportunity to look ahead, multiplies the knowledge required for
reliable insights into the future. Rapid change also reduces the
relevance of precedent, of custom, of traditional values, and of
conventional wisdom as guides for decision. As the rate of change
quickens, society's decisions and rules must either be continuously

28

reformulated or else founded on deeper strata of knowledge and
understanding. Otherwise, shifting circumstances will quickly erode
their applicability, and they are likely to become part of the problem
rather than the solution.

With slower rates of change, past answers are a better guide, and
the occasionally needed revisions can be formulated, tested, and
revised after problems are already upon us. With faster rates of
change, problems need to be foreseen rather than experienced, and the
consequences of policy choices need to be anticipated rather than
discovered. The task of foreseeing problems and predicting policy
outcomes is, however, immensely more difficult than the task of
reacting to events and adjusting policies by trial and error. Of course,
no amount of science or rational analysis can guarantee perfect
foresight or the discovery of all possible options, but lack of perfection
is no argument for failing to make the best possible use of the
intellectual tools available, or for failing to take advantage of every
opportunity to add to these tools.

Interdependencies and rapid change also strain the capacities of
our current fund of scientific knowledge and our current research
methodologies. The need is increasing for knowledge of the multitude
of interdependent factors and processes involved in the changes, as
well as for experimental and analytic methodology applicable to
complex, unique, rapidly evolving systems, including social systems.

29

w

ADEQUACY OF SCIENCE TO MEET

THE CHALLENGES:
TWO ILLUSTRATIVE TESTS

In this chapter some of the major challenges discussed earlier are
translated into the derived challenges posed for science. The adequacy
of the existing base of scientific knowledge to meet these challenges is
assessed, and gaps in this base, which must be filled in the future, are
identified.

Science can provide objective understanding of the nature and
dimensions of each such problem, and offer alternate approaches to its
possible solution. The scientific knowledge base and the capacity to use
it are necessary, but not sufficient, prerequisites for alleviating the
large and complex problems noted in this report. To these must be
added a viable and sustained level of societal commitment to solving
the problems, expressed in appropriate fiscal, institutional, political,
and social terms.

Each of these elements must be present in sufficient strength if
challenges of the magnitude discussed herein are to be met
successfully. Subsequent attention in this chapter, however, will focus
on the essential scientific aspects.

For the purpose of assessing the adequacy of science to meet these
challenges, two problems are selected as illustrations: "energy" and
"cancer." These problems were selected as examples only; similar
analyses could be made of each of the other challenges, and similar
general findings probably would be obtained. The two examples,
however, have certain desirable characteristics for the present
purpose: "energy" and "cancer" represent quite different kinds of
problems; the core scientific disciplines involved differ in the two
cases, although some overlap exists among supporting disciplines;
each problem satisfies, to some extent, the two societal criteria cited
above for successfully meeting complex challenges; and both are the
subject of recently initiated national programs aimed at responding to
the challenges they represent.

31

Cancer

Some 50 million Americans living today will be afflicted with
cancer and two-thirds of them will die from the disease, if present
trends continue. One of every six deaths in the United States is now
attributable to cancer, a toll that is exceeded only by deaths from
cardiovascular diseases. Almost half of those who die from cancer are
less than 65 years of age, with leukemia being the major disease killer
of children under 15 years of age. The incidence of cancer and the
mortality from it have increased steadily over the last 40 or so years for
which statistics on the disease are available.

The Growing Science Base

During the same period remarkable progress was made in the
understanding of living organisms. Within the overall advances in the
biological sciences — to which chemistry and physics made major
contributions — were many fundamental advances in biochemistry and
its derivatives, such as immunochemistry, cellular genetics, cell
biology, molecular biology, and virology. Progress in these areas
expanded the knowledge of normal cells, providing new insights and
greater understanding of their structure, functioning, and division.
Most of this knowledge was acquired through basic research designed
primarily to extend the realm of scientific understanding, rather than
for its potential applications.

This understanding, however, provided the basis for elucidating
differences between normal and cancerous cells, an essential step in
determining the nature of cancer and in developing approaches for
preventing and treating the disease. The resulting characterization of
cancer is that of uncontrolled proliferation of malignant cells which
fail to receive or respond to signals to halt further division. Instead of
an orderly distribution of cells in the surrounding tissue, the spatial
arrangement of malignant cells appears to be random or haphazard.
And in contrast to the spread of normal cells, cancerous cells may
become detached from a tumor and move to another site sometimes
remote, where a new tumor is started.

Research over this period also provided insights into the factors
which initiate cancer. There appears to be no single cause of the
disease — or perhaps more properly, "diseases." Indeed, it is not yet
clear whether cancer is a single disease that is manifested in various
forms, or many diseases that exhibit similar symptoms. Many factors
appear to play an influential role, including heredity and the
individual's own metabolic, hormonal, and immunological responses.
In addition, man's own acts may be involved in a causal way. Some 80-
85 percent of all cancers are estimated to have an environmental cause.

32

resulting from exposure to a variety of agents — chemicals, viruses,
and ionizing radiation — many of which are man-made.

The various lines of research, which were undertaken primarily to
further the understanding of normal biological processes, laid the
basis for several therapeutic approaches to cancer. These included the
use of chemicals (drugs) which interfered with or inhibited the
continued growth of certain types of cancerous cells, as well as surgical
and radiological techniques. These therapies, used singly and in
combination, now permit a significant degree of success in treating
several types of cancer — childhood leukemia, Hodgkin's disease,
choriocarcinoma, skin cancer, prostate cancer, and cancer of the
uterine cervix.

By the early 1970's, progress in the understanding of normal cell
biology and in some approaches to chemotherapy seemed sufficient to
convince some scientists that the stage had been set for a major,
focused attack on cancer.

The National Cancer Program Plan

The elimination of cancer was announced as a national goal in
1971, and the National Cancer Institute was directed by the President
to prepare a National Cancer Program Plan. Assisted by several
hundred of the most knowledgeable scientists in the country, the
Institute prepared a plan of effort which was published in 1973. The
most salient of the several volumes comprising the Plan are "The
Strategic Plan" and "Digest of Scientific Recommendations for the
National Cancer Program Plan."

The ultimate goal of cancer research is the development of means
for eliminating human cancer. Toward this end, the National Cancer
Program Goal has been defined as follows:

To develop, through research and development efforts, the means
to significantly reduce the incidence of cancer and human
morbidity and mortality from cancer by:

• preventing as many cancers as possible

• curing patients who develop cancer

• providing maximum palliation to patients not cured

• rehabilitating treated patients to as nearly normal a state as
possible.

The Program, it should be noted, is one of research and
development, not of the delivery of health care. The ultimate
alleviation of cancer is to be achieved through the application of
research results by medical and public health practitioners, although a

33

component of the Program is designed to hasten the practical
apphcation of results from the research program.

Toward the attainment of this Goal, a Program was devised which
delineated seven major Objectives:

1. Develop the means to reduce the effectiveness of external
agents for producing cancer.

2. Develop the means to modify individuals in order to minimize
the risk of cai cer development.

3. Develop the means to prevent transformation of normal cells
to cells a cable of forming cancer.

4. Develop the means to prevent progression of precancerous
cells to cancer, the development of cancers from precancerous
conditions, and spread of cancers from primary sites.

5. Develop the means to achieve an accurate assessment of (a) the
risk of developing cancer in individuals and in population groups
and (b) the presence, extent and probable course of existing
cancers.

6. Develop the means to cure cancer patients and to control the
progress of cancer.

7. Develop the means to improve the rehabilitation of cancer
patients.

It is not the purpose of this report to assess whether, indeed, the
stage had been set adequately for the major effort which this Plan
entails. Nor is the purpc^e to assess the general structure of the Plan
and its balance, or to comment on the relative resources which should
be applied to the several program elements. The purpose, rather, is to
emphasize the criticality of fundamental biological understanding to
the success of the total endeavor.

Adequacy of the Current State of Basic Research

A successful and efficient attack on cancer — or on any of the
problems discussed in this report — requires an adequate level of basic
scientific knowledge. Such knowledge is necessary for understanding
the nature of the problem, the etiology, dynamics, and symptoms of
the disease(s). In the absence of this knowledge, the problem cannot be
defined with sufficient precision to attack it. Basic knowledge is
needed also to provide plausible approaches to the prob-
lem— directions of attack which can be implemented and which hold
some promise of success. Without this degree of knowledge, any
approach is perforce trial and error and must depend upon fortuitous
events for its success. Lacking an adequate base of understanding,
efforts to cope with cancer are likely to fail and are certain to waste
valuable resources and precious time in the process.

34

Is the state of scientific knowledge regarding the nature of cancer
adequate to develop an effective plan for ameliorating the disease? The
fact that a program of research and development could be formulated
at all suggests that the current knowledge base is sufficient for this
purpose. Formulation of a detailed Plan was possible only because of
the diverse clues obtained from earlier research.

The existence of crucial knowledge gaps is explicitly recognized in
the Plan. Indeed, much of the planned effort consists of basic (non-
targeted) research to extend the base of scientific knowledge. In this
regard, "The Strategic Plan" states:

Our areas of ignorance are still large, and caution must be
exercised to assure that the total attack is well balanced
between non-targeted and targeted research.

The pivotal role of basic research in achieving the Objectives of
the Program is emphasized also in the "Digest of Scientific
Recommendations for the National Cancer Program Plan":

The very foundations of cell biology, molecular biology and
immunology must be strengthened and the entire structure
must be enlarged and possibly remodeled ....

Accordingly, several approaches to the attainment of each major
Objective have been delineated and, within each approach, a large
number of Approach Elements, i.e., highly specific defined
subobjectives. To illustrate. Objective 3 above is to develop means to
prevent transformation of normal cells to cells capable of forming
cancers. The alternate approaches to that Objective are: (a) study the
nature and modification of the precancerous state and determine
mechanisms accounting for high degrees of stability of cell function;
(b) delineate the nature and rate of oncogenic cell transformations in
carcinogenesis (include aspects of cell culture and viruses); (c)
investigate cellular and organismal modifiers of the transformation
and promotion processes; (d) identify immunologic aspects of
transformation; and (e) study cell surfaces and cell membranes.

The Approach Elements are numerous, as illustrated by the
following random sampling of "elements" associated with Objective 3:
to elucidate mechanisms of DNA replication and repair in normal and
cancer cells; to characterize the molecular basis for development,
stability, and inheritance of differentiated cells; to delineate the
interaction of precancerous cells with their host; to delineate cancer
genomes through manipulation of cells or chromosomes; to define the
relationship of mutagenesis to carcinogenesis; to characterize
molecular species involved in expression of cancer genomes; to extend
studies on the biology, molecular biology, genetics, and enzymology of
oncogenic viruses; to determine the role of hormones in cancer; to
determine the role of nutrition in cancer; to define the genetic basis of

35

the immune response; to study the composition, structure, and
function of normal and cancer cell membranes; and to define the role
of membrane antigens in tumor development and rejection.

The various and diverse Approaches outlined in the Plan share a
common and important characteristic: the basic role of fundamental
understanding of biological processes in attaining the Goal of the
Program. Success is conditioned entirely upon gaining sufficient
understanding of the normal life of a tissue cell, and the manner in
which it is altered after the neoplastic transformation.

One of the largest gaps in modern biology is detailed knowledge
about the mechanism of normal cell differentiation and the means by
which such cells maintain their stability throughout life. The question
of how normal cells acquire and maintain their differentiated
character encompasses some of the most important unknowns in cell
biology. The answer to this question — which will require much
fundamental research — is essential to a successful attack on cancer.

Although clues abound, there is as yet no satisfactory description
of the fundamental nature of the neoplastic transformation involved
in cancer. Indeed, present knowledge is insufficient to assure that the
structure or function which is altered in the course of that
transformation has been properly described. Even if this critical
information were available, a large effort would still be required to
achieve the major Program Objectives, for success will require
answers to most of the other questions posed.

If human cancers are caused by viruses — whether they invade
from without or are carried in the genome from birth — it is not clear
what those viruses actually do that results in malignancy. To repeat, it
is difficult to understand how malignant cells escape from an
otherwise normal organ, when understanding is lacking of what
prevents normal cells from doing so. Plainly, since cancerous cells
differentiate and undergo repeated divisions, they escape from some
control mechanism. But the nature of the control mechanisms
operative in the normal cell itself is totally unknown.

On the surface of cancer cells are macromolecules, known only by
their immunological properties, which are not present on the surface
of the normal cells from which the cancer cells developed. But the
relationship, if any, between the presence of these macromolecules
and the uncontrolled growth and diffusion of cancer cells is unknown
at present. Whether the macromolecules (which are called "tumor
antigens") are a primary aspect of neoplasia, or a secondary
consequence, remains to be established. Their presence, however,
furnishes another possible clue. It may be that the neoplastic
transformation is not a rare event which inevitably leads to cancer but
rather a frequent process which relatively rarely culminates in the
disease. This could be the case if such transformed cells are usually

36

destroyed by the normal immune system which recognizes the
modified cells as "foreign," because of their new surface antigens.
Were this the case, an important clue would lie in understanding why
the immune system sometimes fails to recognize or destroy the
foreign cell, thus permitting neoplasia.

These few details are offered not so much for the insight they
afford into the nature of cancer, but rather to emphasize that, even
now, attempts to deal with the disease are limited by the fact that the
understanding of neoplasia is still at a primitive, descriptive level,
limited by understanding of normal biology. Success in attaining the
ultimate goals of the Plan depends upon gathering a sufficient body of
information along the lines indicated by the numerous Approach
Elements of the National Cancer Program Plan. The possibilities for
early diagnosis, for prevention, or for definitive therapy could be
markedly enhanced by such knowledge. But even then, considerable
additional effort would remain before the Objectives of the Plan could
be realized.

The translation of fundamental understanding into effective
therapeutic approaches is a major goal of the Program. Current
therapeutic approaches rest on empiricism and a rather general level of
understanding. For example, radiation is known to be injurious to cells
in mitosis; hence, dividing cancerous cells should be more susceptible
to radiation than normal cells. Again, cell division requires synthesis of
DNA, the genetic material in chromosomes; hence, chemicals which
can interfere with DNA synthesis are candidates for use as anticancer
drugs. But both radiation and such drugs have only limited usefulness
because of their inefficiency and the fact that they damage normally
dividing cells such as those of the bone marrow. What is required is a
family of agents directed more closely at the processes involved in the
neoplastic transformation. No such agent is available nor can the
process in question be described. Even when that knowledge is in
hand, the remaining task will be formidable. An illustration of the
difficulty of this task may be drawn from another major disease:
essential or malignant hypertension. It is now known that this disease,
in many instances, is the consequence of an alteration in the kidney
which results in liberation into the blood plasma of an enzyme, renin.
This enzyme catalyzes the removal from a normal serum protein of a
decapeptide, a linear chain of 10 amino acids of known composition.
The terminal two amino acids of the decapeptide are removed by a
second enzyme contained in normal blood plasma, yielding an
octapeptide, a chain of eight amino acids called "angiotension II," the
most powerful pressor agent known. If a drug were available which
could inhibit either of the two enzymes involved in this process, it
could serve as a definitive therapeutic agent for malignant
hypertension. Unfortunately, no such inhibitor is known as yet.
Alternatively, were there an otherwise innocuous compound which
could mimic angiotension but not cause arteriolar constriction, it too

37

could serve as the ideal antihypertensive drug. But efforts in this
direction remain unsuccessful, and this disease remains a serious
health problem. By analogy, if there is some parallel alteration in the
chemical life of the cancerous cell, the way might be opened to an
equivalent rational therapeutic approach. The need to look elsewhere
for a persuasive example of a promising current approach to therapy
underscores the current state of ignorance regarding the essential
nature of cancer.

The broad sweep of the National Cancer Program Plan for
advancing basic understanding requires contributions from many
scientific fields. The biological sciences, of course, constitute the core
disciplines, with a central role for biochemistry, cell biology, molecular
biology, immunology, and oncology. Chemistry is also a key field of
research ranging from the detection and analysis of air-borne
carcinogens to the synthesis of new drugs. Mathematics will become
increasingly important in "modeling" cancer which, in turn, means
new uses of computers and perhaps the design of special purpose
computers and associated languages. In addition to these individual
disciplinary efforts, increasing numbers of engineers, statisticians,
and epidemiologists are needed to work with biomedical research
teams.

The involvement of a large part of the total spectrum of scientific
disciplines is necessitated by the complexity of the cancer problem, the
large gaps in essential knowledge, and the broad scope of the plan of
attack. Comprehensive and concerted efforts to deal with any of the
problems discussed previously in this report would require the
contributions of a similarly large array of scientific disciplines. The
only difference would lie in the relative mix of disciplines which must
be marshaled.

Scientific Manpower Requirements

The National Cancer Program Plan calls for an operating level of
approximately 13,500 professional research scientists,^ with some
11,000 of these needed for the component of the National Program to
be supported by the National Cancer Institute. This operating level is
to be reached by fiscal year 1982, building from an estimated level of
5,500 scientists in fiscal year 1972.

The available scientific manpower (along with associated facilities
and supporting resources) is a major constraint on the more rapid

' A research scientist is defined as one holding an M.D. or Ph.D., or equivalent
degree, who is responsible for the conduct and/or direction of particular research tasks.

38

expansion of the overall Cancer Program. As noted in "The Strategic
Plan," to achieve the target operating level at this time "is not only
impossible from the scientific standpoint but impractical and
undesirable from the standpoint of impact on national biomedical
resources." As the Program is steadily expanded, the required research
scientists are to be drawn from the growing research manpower pool.
In addition, training programs are planned for "filling specific critical
scientific discipline deficiencies."

In spite of these measures, "a deficiency in the number of
scientists may begin to occur in FY75 and may continue to increase as
the program expands." This estimate applies to the total number of
research scientists needed for the Program, and does not include the
specific disciplines in which deficiencies are expected. Critical
deficiencies, however, exist currently in the scientific areas of
carcinogenesis, immunology, cancer biology, epidemiology, and
pharmacology, according to a preliminary analysis presented in "The
Strategic Plan."

Scientific manpower deficiencies, such as these, are likely to occur
at the outset of any large, new effort involving research and develop-
ment as a major component. These deficiencies, furthermore, are
likely to persist for several years, unless existing programs employing
the needed scientists are reduced, because of the long time period
required for training scientists. Thus, the existing scientific
manpower — and the time lag in expanding the supply — will generally
act as a major constraint on the rate of growth of new R&D-intensive
programs.

Prospects for the Cancer Program

The success of the National Cancer Program will depend directly
upon the continuing progress of fundamental biological science.
Success lies, more particularly, in reaching an understanding of the
nature of a living normal cell and the alterations to which it is subject.

The basic research which must be done to achieve this
understanding cannot be given more than broad, general direction.
Given sufficient support and resources, the research must follow its
own leads, the intellectual structure building upon the platform
already constructed. It is of little consequence to society whether this
very large area of fundamental biology is formally viewed and
financially supported as "cancer research" or simply as "fundamental
cellular biology." The same scientific community will be enlisted in the
task, and those investigators who focus on "the nature of cancer" will
continue to gather clues in the attempt to develop the understanding
required so that the societal goals envisioned by the National Cancer
Program Plan may one day be reached.

39

Energy

The pattern of energy use underlies, shapes, and reflects a
culture. Few other factors impact so pervasively on human life. The
forms, quantity, and cost of available energy determine the possible
variety in human settlements; condition the economic and social
structure of society; and influence the direction and rate of economic
growth, level, and type of employment, forms of technology, methods
of food production, and life styles. Thus, sudden and significant
changes in the pattern of energy availability and use can be profoundly
disruptive — nationally and internationally.

Consumption of energy on a worldwide basis has increased by
some 6 percent annually for several years. This amounts to a doubling
every 12 years of the quantity of energy consumed. For the United
States, growth in consumption averaged 4.3 percent over the past
decade, while rising to almost 5 percent in recent years. Growth rates
for most other developed countries have far exceeded those of the
United States in the last few years. Even so, the U.S. consumes a third
of all energy used in the world, while having only 6 percent of its
population. On a per capita basis, U.S. consumption is some six times
that of the world average, with the difference between the United
States and many developing nations being as much as a factor of 100.

While the U.S. rate of demand for energy rose to nearly 5 percent
annually, domestic production grew at a steady rate of some 3 percent
annually. The result was an increasing reliance on imports — primarily
in the form of petroleum. In the first half of 1973, the United States
imported 17 percent of its total energy consumption, including 33
percent of its petroleum. The chief suppliers of the imported energy
were the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

In the fall of 1973, these nations quadrupled the price of imported
oil. It is estimated that, as a result of these higher prices, U.S.
expenditures for foreign and domestic oil alone will rise by $26 billion
in 1974. Furthermore, the same price increases are expected to add 2
precent to the U.S. inflation rate in 1974.

Preceding these developments by a few months was a directive
from the President to the Chairman of the Atomic Energy
Commission to"undertake an immediate review of Federal and private
energy research and development activities. . .and to recommend an
integrated energy research and development program for the Nation."

40

The National Energy Program

The report^ presenting the recommended Energy Program for the
Nation was presented to the President in December of 1973. Like the
National Cancer Program Plan, the development of the National
Energy Program was assisted by the advice of several hundred
scientists, engineers, and technologists from all sectors.

The recommended Program, it should be noted, encompasses
many aspects other than energy-related R&D such as economic, in-
stitutional, and legal considerations. The overall goals of the Program
call for the Nation to "regain energy self-sufficiency by
1980" and to "maintain that self-sufficiency at minimal dollar,
environmental, and social costs." The objective of the National Energy
R&D Program is to assist in achieving these goals through research
and development.

The major tasks "required to regain and sustain self-sufficiency"
were identified as:

Task 1. Conserve energy by reducing consumption and
conserve energy resources by increasing the technical
efficiency of conversion processes.

Task 2. Increase domestic production of oil and natural gas as
rapidly as possible.

Task 3. Increase the use of coal, first to supplement and later
to replace oil and natural gas.

Task 4. Expand the production of nuclear energy as rapidly
as possible, first to supplement and later to replace fossil
energy.

Task 5. Promote, to the maximum extent feasible, the use of
renewable energy sources (hydro, geothermal, solar) and
pursue the promise of fusion and central station solar power.

The National Energy R&D Program is to help accomplish these
tasks. The specific technological objectives of the R&D program were
defined in terms of three time periods as follows:

Near- Or Short-Term (Present to 1985)

This category includes research and development
objectives that enhance the implementation of existing
technologies, identify additional resourcies, and improve the

- The Nation's Energy future, a report to the President of the United States, U.S.
Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C., 1973.

41

efficiency of existing techniques, practices, and processes.
Particular attention is given to removing barriers to public
acceptance, satisfying existing standards, and developing an
improved basis for standards in all energy production and use
areas.

Mid-Term Period (1986-2000)

Mid-term energy research and development program
goals aim at providing alternative energy sources and
increased ability to substitute more plentiful fuels for scarcer
ones. Conservation and efficiency measures, conversion of
coal to gas and oil, breeder reactors, and certain solar and
geothermal sources are prime elements of the mid-term
program.

Long-Term Period (Beyond Year 2000)

Many presently unanticipated variables, of course, will
become important in the long-term period. Changes in the
organization of society, in the patterns of transportation and
other energy uses, in the needs of industry, and in overall
economic growth patterns may occur. The long-term goal of
the energy research and development program for self-
sufficiency is the production of adequate amounts of
environmentally clean, low-cost fuels from relatively
inexhaustible domestic sources. Energy should be available in
forms best suited to the energy needs of the various sectors of
the economy.

In addition to these technological objectives, the Program
specified certain supporting objectives:

• Enhance basic research into energy systems and fuel
sources.

• Continue basic research into chemistry, physics, geology,
and biology to identify new potentials and provide the basis of
knowledge for solution of problems that experience shows
will arise.

• Establish the nature, emission patterns, distribution in the
environment, and ecological and medical effects of pollutants.

• Provide improved bases of knowledge for setting
environmental standards and minimizing environmental
impacts from energy technologies.

• Develop detailed methods to enhance environmental and
ecological integrity and overcome any necessary but
undesirable impacts that have accumulated.

• Create and sustain an adequate supply of scientifically and
technically competent manpower to support the operation of
the energy system and the research and development
program.

42

Adequacy of the Current State of Basic Research

Fundamental research of the past provides a substantial
foundation for planning and implementing the overall R&D program
in energy. The results of such research, moreover, have provided the
basis for several energy-related technologies that are now operational
and constitute parts of the extant national energy system. Fission-
energy technology and low-BTU gas conversion techniques are but
two of the many areas in which basic research has had such a role.
There are various other energy-related areas and technologies which
require little if any additional basic research. These include surface and
underground mining of coal and shale; coal and shale processing and
combustion; oil and gas recovery; advanced air and nuclear ships
transportation systems; and assessment of energy resources.

For several other areas, the science base is "moderately"adequate,
but further basic research appears to be needed. These include oil-
shale mining and reclamation; coal liquefaction; some energy-
conversion techniques (e.g., high temperature gas turbines and use of
waste heat); and some transportation systems (e.g., rail). In the case of
coal liquefaction, for example, the development of reliable techniques
depends upon vigorous research in catalysis, organic chemistry, sulfur
chemistry, chemical kinetics, thermodynamics, and materials.

Significant advances in basic knowledge, however, are required in
respect to certain energy technologies. Among these are the
distribution and storage of energy; magnetohydrodynamics;
geothermal energy; solar energy; and fusion energy. In regard to the
latter, for example, fusion reactors depend on certain plasma behavior
under conditions that have not yet been established in the laboratory.

The National Energy R&D Program Plan calls for substantial
basic research in connection with each of the five major tasks cited
above. The Program Goal of the basic research effort is:

To explore basic phenomena, processes, and techniques in
those physical, chemical, biological, environmental, and social
sciences areas bearing on energy and to ensure the
development of new basic knowledge in these areas.

Such research may often suggest new lines of development not
contemplated at the time the overall program was first defined. Thus,
if the technologies now sought should prove inadequate, the research
may lead to other approaches having a greater probability of success.
Basic research, therefore, increases the chances that present concepts
and approaches will be developed successfully and, at the same time,
provides a basis for new directions if needed.

The necessary basic research in energy-related areas covers a
broad spectrum of disciplines and subjects: materials research.

43

catalysis and chemical reaction kinetics, plasma research, chemical and
physical processes, biological processes, physical environment and
ecology, and social science research.

Materials Research — The inability to predict accurately the behavior
of materials in extreme environments, and to design suitable
materials, is one of the greatest technical obstacles to development and
iitiprovement of energy systems. There are various recognized gaps in
fundamental understanding in these areas. One of these, for example,
is reflected by the largely empirical approach which must be taken now
in the search for superconducting materials with higher critical
temperatures or easier formability. The steady advances made in solid
state theory and in scientific instrumentation provide a firm basis for
efforts to narrow these gaps and obtain new materials with properties
required for energy-related functions. Some examples of areas of
needed materials research are: (1) strength of materials, including
embrittlement by hydrogen and radiation; (2) high temperature
environments, including the impact of thermal shock, behavior of
surface interactions, and microstructural changes; (3) radiation
effects; (4) electrical conductivity, including superconductivity and
conduction at high temperatures; and (5) refractory alloys, including
their ductility, fabricability, and plastic and elastic properties.

Catalysis and Chemical Reaction Kinetics — Advances in these areas are
critical to several approaches for producing energy, in terms of fuel
production as well as the sequent processing of effluents. The use of
catalysts can raise chemical reaction rates by as much as a factor of 10^,
and may often reduce or eliminate undesirable waste by-products in
the process. Their use is expected to be significant in the processing of
coal, oil and shale, and gaseous fuel production. Although catalysts
have been used extensively, basic understanding is deficient in regard
to how catalysts interact with reacting systems; this knowledge is
needed to deal with the desulfurization problems of coal and heavy
petroleum tars and crudes. Further knowledge of chemical reaction
kinetics of noncatalytic systems is important in conserving existing
fuels and in obtaining efficient uses of new ones. Some examples of
important areas of study are: (1) structures of surfaces and absorbed
molecules; (2) structure and immobilization of enzymes and soluble
homogeneous catalyst molecules; and (3) mechanisms of
homogeneous reactions including reactive intermediates.

Plasma Research — The behavior of plasma is not satisfactorily
described by the methods used for studying solids, liquids, and gases.
Considerable research, theoretical and experimental, must precede
the development of plasma systems for generating and transforming
energy — systems such as fusion reactors, magnetohydrodynamic
converters, thermionic cells, high temperature chemical processing,
and gas lasers. The needed knowledge centers around how to keep the
plasma where it is wanted, how to keep it clean, and how to keep it hot.

44

Although much is known about certain aspects of the phenomena
(e.g., effects of magnetic field shape, plasma density, and impurities),
little is known about other facets such as the effects of rapid
temperature changes as brought about by nuclear reactions, or the
laws of scaling to large plasma volumes. Sophisticated experiments
will be required in order to transform laboratory demonstrations into
operational systems of energy production and conversion.

Chemical and Physical Processes — The basic processes of fuel
preparation, combustion, and heat transfer are incompletely
understood. Additional research is required if the efficiencies of these
processes are to be increased. The results of such research would apply
to the energy production functions performed at central stations: the
chemical separation of impurities from fuel, such as sulfur from oil and
coal gases; combustion of the fuel; and the transfer of the generated
heat to the primary working fluid. The processes requiring study lie in
the various disciplinary fields of physics, chemistry, and engineering,
examples of which are separation chemistry, electrochemistry, fluid
dynamics, energy transformation processes, heat and mass transport,
atomic physics, nuclear properties and cross sections,
thermodynamics, and combustion.

Biological Processes — The research required in this area centers
around (1) energy conversion by biological means (conversion of
cellulosic materials to fuels); (2) biological detoxification of effluents
from energy systems; and (3) the determination of biological effects of
toxic substances. Efforts in the first two of these can be expected to
add to the basic energy supply and increase the conversion and use
efficiency of various energy resources. Greater knowledge in the last
area is essential for preventing hazardous health conditions and
protecting the biosphere from toxic effluents of energy systems.
Possible applications of such research range from the bioconversion of
animal and plant wastes to usable fuels to the development of data for
establishing standards for toxic substances release rates.

Physical Environment and Ecology — The physical environment, while
providing energy resources, sites for energy system operations, and a
repository for energy effluents, must be protected from assaults
against its own vitality. To achieve this end, research is needed on (1)
means for safely transporting and disposing of thermal and material
loads; (2) ecological systems; (3) spatial and temporal distribution of
trace substances; and (4) surficial faulting and rupture, seismology,
and rock and soil mechanics. The knowledge acquired from such
research can provide an informed basis for environmental control
guidelines, standards, and legislation concerning energy conversion
and use.

Social Science Research— Both basic and applied research in the social
sciences are required, primarily in the disciplines of economics, social

45

psychology, political science, demography, and mathematics related to
these disciplines. The objectives of such research include: (1) improved
economic theory and models relating energy use to other national
parameters; (2) better knowledge of how life styles and the "quality of
life" relate to national energy policy; (3) insights into the factors
controlling population and economic growth; and (4) increased
understanding of the Nation's international relationships and
obligations in matters of energy.

As in the case of the National Cancer Program, basic research is
required in a wide variety of scientific disciplines in order to meet the
goals of the Energy Program. A part of the basic research program, as
noted in the National Energy R&D Program, "is designed to find
answers to questions now visible. Another part is intended as
insurance against unknown future barriers to development progress.
A very small part. ..is to encourage creativity and imagination along
lines not yet chartable in the long-term concerns for renewable
energy."

Scientific Manpower Requirements

It is anticipated that the Federal Program of Energy R&D would
employ some 40,000 scientists, engineers, and technicians when the
Program becomes fully operational. In 1973 about 50 percent of that
number were employed in federally supported energy R&D. The
Energy Program Plan notes that: "While the potential for
redistribution of technical manpower is high, reorientation or
retraining will be necessary, and major growth in the longer term
must be ensured." Toward this end, the Program provides for
manpower development. The first targets are (1) the expansion of
educational faculty to train manpower for R&D in energy, and (2) the
enhancement of the effectiveness of managerial personnel in
government and industry for planning and implementing R&D
projects. Subsequently, efforts will be directed to enlarging the base of
energy-trained manpower through the support of students and
expanding institutional capabilities to retrain and redirect technical
manpower at all levels.

Manpower requirements in the private sector are substantially
greater than those of the Federal Government. A "maximum effort"
by industry to develop domestic fuel sources over the next decade is
estimated to require 230,000 scientists and engineers by 1980 and
308,000 by 1985, compared with the employment of 141,000 in 1970.^
(These estimates may be conservative in that they do not include the

' The Demand for Scientific and Technical Manpower in Selected Energy-Related Industries, 1970-
85: A Methodology Applied to a Selected Scenario of Energy Output. A Summary, National Planning
Association, September 1974.

46

demand for scientists and engineers by industries supplying the
energy sector.)

The demand for scientists in programs funded by the private
sector is expected to increase to 61,000 in 1980 and to 83,000 in 1985,
up from 40,000 in 1970. The largest increases between 1970-85 are
expected for physicists (from 8,000 in 1970 to 22,800 in 1985),
chemists (from 13,200 to 27,800), and mathematicians (from 7,500 to
13,900). The ". . .larger numbers of physicists and chemists [and
mathematicians] will be required in the production of energy because
of the increase in nuclear power plants;. . ."'^

The requirement for engineers is expected to rise to 169,000 in
1980 and to 225,000 in 1985, as compared with 101,000 in 1970.
Among engineers, the largest demand in 1985 is expected to be for
electrical engineers (65,500 versus 25,600 in 1970), chemical engineers
(51,500 versus 33,600), and mechanical (30,500 versus 8,000). These
increases ". . .reflect changes in the energy production technologies in
general and the rapid increase in the nuclear power generating units in
particular. "4

The future supply of scientists and engineers may be inadequate
to meet the demands associated with increasing domestic energy
production. However, the "supply situation will become considerably
worse beyond the mid 1970's if current trends continue toward an
overall decrease in the number of graduating physical scientists and
engineers." "This already bleak future supply/demand relationship
for the scientists and engineers. . .is further complicated by the fact
that, in most cases, experienced scientists and engineers and/or those
with skills beyond the bachelor's degree are needed."''

♦ The Demand for Scientific and Technical Manpower in Selected Energy-Related Industries, 1970-
85: A Methodology Applied to a Selected Scenario of Energy Output. A Summary, National Planning
Association, September 1974.

47

m

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

Challenges of Today and Tomorrow

This report reviews the challenges which have always confronted
man — the unknown, threats from nature, and social conflict — and
notes some of the ways in which science has helped to meet them.
Principal attention, however, is focused on the new challenge posed by
man's increasing power to shape the future, to modify, intentionally
and unintentionally, the basic conditions of life.

Various facets of this challenge are discussed — population
growth, food supply, energy demand, mineral resources, weather and
climate modification, and environmental alteration — and major
directions of scientific research needed to meet these problems are
suggested. And finally, the adequacy of present scientific knowledge
for coping with the many problems is tested against the needs in two
specific areas — cancer and energy.

The problems, old and new, constitute a formidable challenge to
this Nation and to the world. Many of the problems are likely to
become even greater threats in the years ahead, possibly resulting in
domestic turmoil and international strife.

The several problems coexist and are global in scope and
implication. They are also closely coupled — changes in one modifying
others. Because of these interconnections, it is difficult to attack the
problems singly, and because of their global nature, the efforts of one
country acting alone — rather than in concert with other nations — may
not be effective in alleviating them.

The scope and depth of the problems, their coincidence and rapid
growth, all underscore the sense of urgency with which these
challenges must be confronted.

49

Role of Science and Technology ~^

Science and technology, by themselves, cannot solve any of these
complex problems. As part of a broader commitment and larger
strategy, however, science and technology can play a pivotal role in
helping to alleviate many of them. But these contributions will be
neither immediate nor costless.

The principal role of science and technology is to provide more and
better options than are now available for meeting the problems.
Science can supply the basic knowledge required for understanding
the origins and dynamics of the problems, for measuring their
magnitudes and directions, and for devising and assessing possible
approaches for coping with them. And technology, drawing upon
scientific knowledge, can provide many of the practical tools and
techniques for attacking the problems.

Together, science and technology provide the means for:

• Understanding and measuring human needs for energy;
determining their trends and trade-offs; developing policies
and technologies for efficient energy use; assessing the
availability and implications of the use of potential sources of
energy; and developing new energy sources.

• Comprehending the dynamics and trends of population
growth and developing alternate means of control.

• Understanding diseases for the purposes of preventing them
and developing improved methods of treatment and more
effective and efficient delivery of health services.

• Investigating natural and synthetic foods and materials, their
development and use, their disposal or recycling, their
efficient use or substitution, and their interaction with
human lifestyles and their change.

• Improving the understanding of interpersonal, institutional,
and social problems, and developing and gauging the success
of alternate approaches for alleviating them.

Adequacy of Present Knowledge

Scientific knowledge at present is sufficient to sustain major
research and development efforts in all the directions just cited.
Present understanding is adequate to help identify some of the major
dimensions of the problems discussed in the report, to give general
guidance for formulating plans of applied research and development to
attack them, and to offer some potential — although often
limited — options for responding to the challenges.

50

But significant advances in knowledge are needed in order to
understand these and other problems more thoroughly, and to
develop alternate strategies and technologies of assured effectiveness.
Major advances in virtually all the basic and applied sciences are
required for this purpose, as indicated in earlier chapters of this report.

In addition, knowledge from the diverse scientific disciplines and
applied sciences needs to be synthesized and focused on the complex of
problems discussed earlier. Such integration could sharpen the
understanding of the interactions among the problems, help to
identify knowledge gaps and priorities for filling them, and suggest
directions for attacking the problems which would neither aggravate
related problems nor create serious new ones.

The Nation's Research Effort

The important role of science and technology in meeting the many
challenges prompts the question: Is the Nation's effort in research
commensurate with the magnitude and nature of the challenges?

The current research effort, we believe, is inadequate to prepare
the Nation for the challenges which are now emerging and which are
likely to face it in the future. This conclusion is based upon
consideration of these challenges in relationship to recent trends in the
level and direction of basic and applied research, as shown by the
following indicators.

1 . National expenditures (Federal and private) for basic research
rose by 13 percent in current dollars over the 1970-74 period,
but declined by 10 percent in constant dollars. i Over the same
period, outlays for basic research by the Federal Government
(the prime source of such funds) increased by 6 percent in
current dollars, but decreased by 15 percent in constant
dollars. 2

2. National expenditures (Federal and private) for applied
research increased in current dollars by 21 percent between
1970-74, but declined in constant dollars by 3 percent. Federal
expenditures during this period rose by 15 percent in current
dollars, but fell by 8 percent in constant dollars. ^

3. Obligations by the Federal Government for basic research in
areas other than defense and space — such as health,

1 Constant dollars, by accounting for the effects of inflation, reflect the actual level
of research activity more accurately than current dollars.

2 National Patterns of R&D Resources, National Science Foundation, U.S. Government
Printing Office, Washington, D.C., 1975 (in press).

51

environment, and natural resources — grew by 36 percent in
current dollars (11 percent in constant dollars) between fiscal
years 1970-74. Obligations for applied research in these
"civilian" areas increased by 64 percent in current dollars (34
percent in constant dollars) over the period, while outlays for
development rose by 72 percent in current dollars (40 percent
in constant dollars). ^

4. Federal obligations for basic research in the defense and space
areas increased by 3 percent and 14 percent, respectively, in
current dollars between fiscal years 1970-74, while declining
by 14 percent and 7 percent, respectively, in constant dollars.
Outlays for applied research in defense-related areas rose by
16 percent'in current dollars over the period, but declined by 5
percent in constant dollars. Obligations for applied research
in the space area decreased by 40 percent in current dollars
and 51 percent in constant dollars.^ ■^

5. Federal obligations for "untargeted" basic research — re-
search that is not linked with a specific problem area — grew
by 20 percent in current dollars between fiscal years 1970-74,
while declining by 2 percent in constant dollars. Obligations
in this area, which are aimed at strengthening the general
base of scientific knowledge, dropped from 13 percent to 10
percent of total Federal obligations for civilian R&D.^

These data indicate the complexity of recent shifts in the level and
direction of the Nation's research effort. Certain trends, however,
emerge clearly.

• The level of basic research activity in the Nation declined
significantly between 1970-74, as measured in constant
dollars.

• National expenditures for applied research decreased also,
but to a lesser extent than for basic research.

• Federal obligations for both basic and applied research
expanded in civilian areas as a whole, increasing at an annual
rate of about 3 percent in constant dollars between 1970-74.

3 Special analysis prepared from An Analysis of Federal R&D Funding by Function,
National Science Foundation, NSF 74-313, U.S. Government Printing Office,
Washington, D.C., 1974.

*• The general purpose research conducted as part of the overall R&D efforts in
defense and space contributed in significant ways to scientific knowledge and
technological capability relevant to "civilian" areas, as illustrated in earlier chapters of
this report. To that extent, cutbacks in defense and space research represent a reduction
in efforts applicable to some of the problems now facing the Nation.

52

•

These increases in Federal obligations for research in civilian
areas were concentrated in selected fields. The field of health
accounted for 53 percent of the total growth between 1970-
74, the environment for 25 percent, natural resources for 9
percent, and energy for 8 percent.

Federal obligations for "untargeted" basic research declined
slightly between 1970-74 in constant dollars, while
decreasing substantially as a fraction of total Federal
obligations for civilian R&D.

Earlier chapters indicate that present and developing problems of
a civilian character require for their alleviation a broader base of
knowledge than is now available; that much research is needed to fill
this gap; and judging from past experience, that scientific knowledge
and research capabilities will be needed tomorrow for problems that
cannot be formulated clearly today.

53

w

RECOMMENDATIONS

Application of the Nation's Research Capability
to Civilian Problems

The Nation's capabilities in science and technology should be
brought more fully to bear on the full range of civilian problems of the
kind discussed in this report: population, health, food, energy,
minerals, weather and climate, and the environment.

These capabilities, in addition, should be directed to deepening
and expanding general scientific knowledge through "untargeted"
basic research, so that the Nation will be better prepared to meet the
unforeseen challenges which assuredly will arise in the future.

We believe that the science and technology enterprise has the
capability to increase its research efforts effectively in both directions.
We believe, further, that the Nation's research effort, in both its basic
and applied aspects, should be expanded. The extent of the expansion
should be sufficient to reverse recent declines in the overall level of
effort and provide for growth in the years ahead, so that the Nation
can obtain the unique benefits available from a vigorous research
endeavor.

The success of this effort requires the participation of the
Nation's entire science and technology enterprise — the Federal
Government, private industry, and the universities.

Role of the Federal Government

In the last few years the Federal Government has increased its
expenditures for research in civiHan areas such as health, energy, and
the environment. This has been accomplished under the difficult
condition of a declining total Federal budget for R&D, in terms of
constant dollars.

55

Although the growth of civilian research funding has been
substantial, further expansion of this component of the Federal
budget appears to be needed — now and for some time into the future.
This applies particularly to civilian problem areas for which existing
market mechanisms and incentives for research do not exist or are too
weak to elicit the necessary action from the private sector.

The Federal Government, in addition, should continue tc^ assume
major responsibility for support of "untargeted" basic research,
because of the broad and multipurpose uses of the results, and because
investment by the private sector is limited by the inability to capture
the full returns from such research.

Role of Private Industry

Only a fraction of the increase in national research expenditures
needs to come, or should come, from the Federal budget. Private
industry should provide a significant part of the overall funding.
Greater investment in research by the private sector could be fostered
through government policies, regulations, and incentives that create a
favorable climate for innovation and investment.

It is believed that the expanded effort by industry should
emphasize the development of new and improved products and
services and the enhancement of productivity. These actions,
combined with enlarged production capacity in some industries, could
help measurably in controlling inflation and strengthening the
Nation's position in international trade.

Role of the University

The principal role for the universities is in the area of basic
research. These institutions should continue to have prime
responsibility for conducting basic research, by virtue of their unique
capabilities and traditions in this area.

A part of the aggregate R&D activity of the Nation must be
reserved for long-term basic research that is not tied specifically to
present problems. Basic research, by expanding scientific knowledge,
provides optional responses to unforeseen challenges that will arise in
the future. Such research, in addition, supplies indispensable
knowledge for intelligent and efficient planning and direction of the
rest of the R&D effort. In this regard, the results from basic research
constitute the infrastructure on which the whole system of innovation
and rational management of technology is based.

56

U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE : 1975 0-568-953

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